Top AI model on December 31?
Gemini 99.9%
Claude <1%
Other <1%
ChatGPT <1%
$1,108,147 Vol.
$1,108,147 Vol.
Dec 31, 2024
Gemini
$397,871 Vol.
Yes
Gemini
$397,871 Vol.
Yes
Other
$193,858 Vol.
No
Other
$193,858 Vol.
No
ChatGPT
$242,629 Vol.
No
ChatGPT
$242,629 Vol.
No
Grok
$177,744 Vol.
No
Grok
$177,744 Vol.
No
Claude
$96,045 Vol.
No
Claude
$96,045 Vol.
No
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Gemini model has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2024, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever model's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, Claude would resolve to "Yes", and "Gemini would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Gemini model has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2024, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever model's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, Claude would resolve to "Yes", and "Gemini would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever model's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, Claude would resolve to "Yes", and "Gemini would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Created At: Dec 17, 2024, 1:17 PM ET
Volume
$1,108,147End Date
Dec 31, 2024Created At
Dec 17, 2024, 1:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Top AI model on December 31?
Gemini 99.9%
Claude <1%
Other <1%
ChatGPT <1%
$1,108,147 Vol.
$1,108,147 Vol.
Dec 31, 2024
Gemini
$397,871 Vol.
Yes
Other
$193,858 Vol.
No
ChatGPT
$242,629 Vol.
No
Grok
$177,744 Vol.
No
Claude
$96,045 Vol.
No
About
Volume
$1,108,147End Date
Dec 31, 2024Created At
Dec 17, 2024, 1:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...
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