Name: Steve Bannon jail by July 1?
Start: 2024-06-06T16:46:14.599488Z
End: 2024-07-01T12:00:00Z

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On June 6, a federal judge ordered ex-Trump adviser Steve Bannon to report to prison by July 1.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Steve Bannon reports to prison between June 5 and July 1, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If he is brought to prison by a third party by the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Steve Bannon jail by July 1?

 This market will resolve to "Yes" if the referenced John Bolton serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between August 25, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


John Bolton in jail in 2025?

AmericaFest is scheduled to take place from December 18 - December 21, 2025, and Steve Bannon is scheduled to speak on December 19 at 5:59PM ET (https://tpusa.com/agenda/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Steve Bannon says the listed term during the scheduled event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If prerecorded clips are aired where Steve Bannon is speaking, those clips will NOT count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

If prerecorded clips are aired where Steve Bannon is speaking, those clips will NOT count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Steve Bannon's scheduled appearance at the TPUSA AmericaFest event on December 19, 2025. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such event is aired by December 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

The resolution source will be video of the event.

Will Steve Bannon say "Deep State" or "Administrative State" at AmericaFest events on December 19?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Larry Summers serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between November 18, 2025 and December 31, 2025 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Larry Summers in jail before 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama serves any time in custody in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between July 22 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Obama in jail in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Biden, Jill Biden, Beau Biden, Hunter Biden, Ashley Biden, James "Jim" Biden, Sara Biden, Valerie Biden Owens, John Owens or Francis "Frank" Biden serve any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between March 17 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump jail Biden family member?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Former Chief Medical Advisor to the President Anthony Fauci serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between March 17 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump jail Fauci?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Sam Altman in jail by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk serves any time in custody in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between June 5, and  December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump jail Elon Musk?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Biden is arrested between September 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Joe Biden arrested by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom is arrested between August 14 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Gavin Newsom arrested by December 31?

Sam Bankman-Fried is tweeting again (https://x.com/SBF_FTX/status/1970633704323362904).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried is released from custody by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Sam Bankman-Fried is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

If Sam Bankman-Fried is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".

Transporting Sam Bankman-Fried  to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

SBF released from custody in 2025?

On October 8, 2025, Donald Trump called for Governor J.B. Pritzker to be arrested. You can read more about that here: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ar-AA1O5i3t

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pritzker is arrested or detained by law enforcement between October 8, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

JB Pritzker arrested by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the referenced James B. Comey serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between September 25, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


James Comey in jail in 2025?

Hong Kong Businessman Jimmy Lai is in custody after being convicted of conspiracy to collude with foreign forces. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/jimmy-lai-verdict-live-hong-kong-court-rule-after-democracy-activists-landmark-2025-12-14/.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".

Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.

Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Jimmy Lai released by January 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Park Sung-jae spends any time in custody in a jail or prison between October 28, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a facility, such as the Seoul Detention Center, while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant, does not qualify. However, non-temporary detention initiated by a court-ordered warrant will count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from involved government(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Park Sung-jae in jail by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump reopen Alcatraz in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if owner of Barstool Sports David Scott Portnoy, serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between February 17, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Dave Portnoy in jail in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Han Duck-soo spends any time in custody in a jail or prison between November 24, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Han Duck-soo spends time in custody in a jail or prison. Temporary holding at a facility such as the Seoul Detention Center while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant does not qualify. However, non-temporary detention initiated by a court ordered warrant will count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from involved government(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Han Duck-soo in jail by January 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Adam Kinzinger serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between March 17 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump jail Adam Kinzinger?

On September 10, 2025, a body was found in a Tesla registered to singer D4vd (David Anthony Burke).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if singer D4vd, David Anthony Burke, is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


D4vd arrested by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lee Jun-seok serves any time in custody in any prison between August 4 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Lee Jun-seok in jail in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially appoints, or announces the appointment of a special prosecutor, special counsel, or other independent prosecutor to investigate matters related to Jeffrey Epstein by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.  Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
 
To qualify, the appointee must be explicitly tasked with investigating the Epstein case. A public statement from Trump, the White House, or the Department of Justice confirming the appointment will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution regardless of when the appointment goes into effect. 

General statements of intent without a named appointee will not qualify. 

The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump administration or a consensus of credible reporting.

Trump appoints special prosecutor for Epstein case in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell publicly accuses Donald Trump of criminal wrongdoing between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, she must explicitly state that Trump committed one or more specific crimes, or clearly refer to him as a criminal and Trump must be named directly.

The accusation must be made Maxwell and made public within the specified date range. 

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Ghislaine Maxwell accuses Trump of being a criminal?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Adam Schiff between August 20, and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Adam Schiff federally charged by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Han Duck-soo is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for charges related to the 2024 South Korean political crisis, including but not limited to allegations of failure to promulgate legislation, obstruction of constitutional processes, or other criminal acts stemming from his actions as Acting President and Prime Minister by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will remain open through 2026 regardless of whether Han Duck-soo's initial sentencing includes prison.  Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Han Duck-soo be sentenced to prison before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is officially deported from the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Deportation is defined as the formal removal of Elon Musk from the US by government authorities due to legal or administrative reasons. Voluntary departure, extradition, or relocation without an official deportation order will not count.

The resolution source will be credible reporting from major news outlets or official government statements.

Will Trump deport Elon Musk in 2025?

Former South Korean Prime Minister Han Duck-soo is scheduled to be sentenced on January 21, 2026 in his criminal case including charges of aiding an insurrection and perjury, among other charges, related to his involvement in Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law declaration in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korea-special-prosecutor-seeks-15-year-jail-term-ex-pm-han-martial-law-2025-11-26/.

This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on former South Korean Prime Minister Han Duck-soo in this martial-law related criminal trial by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Han Duck-soo is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time." If Han Duck-soo is sentenced to life in prison, this market will resolve to the highest bracket.

If no sentencing takes place by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."

It does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Han Duck-soo is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.

If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean government and court system; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 10–15 years in prison?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ghislaine Maxwell is granted a sentence reduction, transfer to a less restrictive facility, or any other formal legal benefit by the U.S. federal government in connection with cooperation or information she provides to U.S. authorities by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Qualifying cooperation may include providing testimony, depositions, or other information to federal prosecutors, law enforcement agencies, or Congress. The benefit must be explicitly linked to such cooperation, either through government statements or a consensus of credible reporting.

Examples of qualifying benefits include but are not limited to:
- A sentence reduction via Rule 35(b) or similar motion
- A transfer to a lower-security facility tied to cooperation
- Entry into witness protection

A presidential commutation or pardon, will qualify regardless of if directly attributed to cooperation.

Changes to her confinement not clearly tied to cooperation will not count.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Ghislaine Maxwell cut a deal with the Feds in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dan Crenshaw initiates a lawsuit against Shawn Ryan by January 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Dan Crenshaw sue Shawn Ryan by Jan 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Chungin (Roy) Lee serves any time in custody in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between June 9 (inclusive) and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cluely CEO Roy Lee in jail in 2025

On August 20, rumors emerged that Mikey Shelton was behind the crypto token $YZY.
 
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the referenced Mikey Shelton serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between August 21, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.



Mikey Shelton in jail in 2025?

Keith O'Brien, a man accused of being a corporate spy for the software firm Deel, recently stated that he was acting under the direct orders of CEO Alex Bouaziz. You can read more about that here: https://fortune.com/2025/04/02/alleged-deel-spy-court-filing-admits-passing-information-rippling-hr-scandal/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alex Bouaziz serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between April 2, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Deel CEO jailed in 2025?

YouTuber Jack Doherty was recently arrested in Miami, Florida and charged with possession of a controlled substance (amphetamine), possession of 20 grams or less of marijuana, and resisting an officer without violence.

This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Jack Doherty in relation to these charges by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in relation to these charges, regardless of any appeals. If the charges are tried separately, this market will stay open until the first sentence has been rendered for all three charges and will resolve based on the cumulative sentence imposed across all three charges. If sentencing has taken place for some, but not all, of these charges on October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on sentencing up to that point.

If Doherty is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if his sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."

If no sentencing takes place by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."

If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Doherty is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Florida court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to no prison time?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Liz Cheney serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between March 17 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump jail Liz Cheney?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Justin Bieber checks into rehab for substance use between May 14 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be statements from Justin Bieber, his representatives, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Justin Bieber rehab in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Odell Beckham Jr., serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between March 10, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be use

Odell Beckham Jr. in jail in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hayden Davis serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between February 16, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Hayden Davis in jail in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested or detained by law enforcement by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Netanyahu arrested by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in custody in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between July 22 (inclusive) and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Jerome Powell in jail in 2025

This market will resolve to "Yes" if former president of Spain José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero is arrested or detained by law enforcement by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero arrested by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Andrii Yermak is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Steve Bannon jail by July 1?

Market Context

Steve Bannon jail by July 1?

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Steve Bannon jail by July 1?

Market Context

Steve Bannon jail by July 1?

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