Polymarket traders assign 48% implied probability to South Korea's 2026 annual CPI inflation exceeding 3.0%, reflecting heightened upside risks from surging petroleum prices that drove March 2026 headline inflation to 2.2% year-over-year—up from February's 2.0% but below 2.4% consensus—despite government subsidies curbing the pass-through. The Bank of Korea, holding its policy rate at 2.50%, recently raised its full-year forecast to 2.2% from 2.1%, citing oil shocks and Middle East tensions as key factors skewing sentiment higher, while 33% odds on sub-1.5% capture potential easing if energy costs moderate. Upcoming April CPI data, expected elevated, and the next BOK meeting will be pivotal catalysts influencing this closely contested positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated3.0%+ 48%
<1.5% 32.7%
1.8% to 2.0% 14%
2.4% to 2.6% 14%
$10,007 Vol.
$10,007 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<1.5%
33%
1.5% to 1.7%
14%
1.8% to 2.0%
14%
2.1% to 2.3%
8%
2.4% to 2.6%
14%
2.7% to 2.9%
4%
3.0%+
48%
3.0%+ 48%
<1.5% 32.7%
1.8% to 2.0% 14%
2.4% to 2.6% 14%
$10,007 Vol.
$10,007 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<1.5%
$937 Vol.
33%
1.5% to 1.7%
$942 Vol.
14%
1.8% to 2.0%
$0 Vol.
14%
2.1% to 2.3%
$0 Vol.
8%
2.4% to 2.6%
$0 Vol.
14%
2.7% to 2.9%
$80 Vol.
4%
3.0%+
$8,048 Vol.
48%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Korea in the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the South Korean Ministry of Data and Statistics (MODS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in South Korea’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (December CPI % change compared to the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MODS Consumer Price Survey report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MODS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on December 31, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mods.go.kr/board.es?mid=a20109020000&bid=11751&eng_board_type=01
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the South Korean Consumer Price Index to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.0%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://mods.go.kr/schdl.es?mid=a20301000000Polymarket traders assign 48% implied probability to South Korea's 2026 annual CPI inflation exceeding 3.0%, reflecting heightened upside risks from surging petroleum prices that drove March 2026 headline inflation to 2.2% year-over-year—up from February's 2.0% but below 2.4% consensus—despite government subsidies curbing the pass-through. The Bank of Korea, holding its policy rate at 2.50%, recently raised its full-year forecast to 2.2% from 2.1%, citing oil shocks and Middle East tensions as key factors skewing sentiment higher, while 33% odds on sub-1.5% capture potential easing if energy costs moderate. Upcoming April CPI data, expected elevated, and the next BOK meeting will be pivotal catalysts influencing this closely contested positioning.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Korea in the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the South Korean Ministry of Data and Statistics (MODS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in South Korea’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (December CPI % change compared to the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MODS Consumer Price Survey report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MODS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on December 31, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mods.go.kr/board.es?mid=a20109020000&bid=11751&eng_board_type=01
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the South Korean Consumer Price Index to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.0%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://mods.go.kr/schdl.es?mid=a20301000000
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in South Korea’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (December CPI % change compared to the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MODS Consumer Price Survey report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MODS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on December 31, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mods.go.kr/board.es?mid=a20109020000&bid=11751&eng_board_type=01
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the South Korean Consumer Price Index to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.0%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://mods.go.kr/schdl.es?mid=a20301000000
Market Opened: Feb 6, 2026, 5:40 PM ET
Volume
$10,007End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 5:40 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Korea in the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the South Korean Ministry of Data and Statistics (MODS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in South Korea’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (December CPI % change compared to the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MODS Consumer Price Survey report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MODS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on December 31, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mods.go.kr/board.es?mid=a20109020000&bid=11751&eng_board_type=01
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the South Korean Consumer Price Index to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.0%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://mods.go.kr/schdl.es?mid=a20301000000Polymarket traders assign 48% implied probability to South Korea's 2026 annual CPI inflation exceeding 3.0%, reflecting heightened upside risks from surging petroleum prices that drove March 2026 headline inflation to 2.2% year-over-year—up from February's 2.0% but below 2.4% consensus—despite government subsidies curbing the pass-through. The Bank of Korea, holding its policy rate at 2.50%, recently raised its full-year forecast to 2.2% from 2.1%, citing oil shocks and Middle East tensions as key factors skewing sentiment higher, while 33% odds on sub-1.5% capture potential easing if energy costs moderate. Upcoming April CPI data, expected elevated, and the next BOK meeting will be pivotal catalysts influencing this closely contested positioning.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Korea in the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the South Korean Ministry of Data and Statistics (MODS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in South Korea’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (December CPI % change compared to the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MODS Consumer Price Survey report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MODS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on December 31, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mods.go.kr/board.es?mid=a20109020000&bid=11751&eng_board_type=01
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the South Korean Consumer Price Index to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.0%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://mods.go.kr/schdl.es?mid=a20301000000
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in South Korea’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (December CPI % change compared to the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MODS Consumer Price Survey report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MODS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on December 31, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mods.go.kr/board.es?mid=a20109020000&bid=11751&eng_board_type=01
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the South Korean Consumer Price Index to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.0%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://mods.go.kr/schdl.es?mid=a20301000000
Volume
$10,007End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 5:40 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign 48% implied probability to South Korea's 2026 annual CPI inflation exceeding 3.0%, reflecting heightened upside risks from surging petroleum prices that drove March 2026 headline inflation to 2.2% year-over-year—up from February's 2.0% but below 2.4% consensus—despite government subsidies curbing the pass-through. The Bank of Korea, holding its policy rate at 2.50%, recently raised its full-year forecast to 2.2% from 2.1%, citing oil shocks and Middle East tensions as key factors skewing sentiment higher, while 33% odds on sub-1.5% capture potential easing if energy costs moderate. Upcoming April CPI data, expected elevated, and the next BOK meeting will be pivotal catalysts influencing this closely contested positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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