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Richest person on December 31, 2026?

Market icon

Richest person on December 31, 2026?

Dec 31

Dec 31

Elon Musk 91%

Jensen Huang 2.1%

Larry Ellison 1.5%

Jeff Bezos 1.4%

Polymarket

$1,441,937 Vol.

Elon Musk 91%

Jensen Huang 2.1%

Larry Ellison 1.5%

Jeff Bezos 1.4%

Polymarket

$1,441,937 Vol.

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Elon Musk

$108,574 Vol.

91%

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Jensen Huang

$117,607 Vol.

2%

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Larry Ellison

$41,720 Vol.

1%

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Jeff Bezos

$296,228 Vol.

1%

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Mark Zuckerberg

$113,575 Vol.

1%

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Larry Page

$115,882 Vol.

1%

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Bernard Arnault

$259,069 Vol.

1%

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Warren Buffett

$77,434 Vol.

1%

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Sergey Brin

$55,545 Vol.

1%

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Steve Ballmer

$256,302 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an overwhelming 90.5% implied probability to Elon Musk remaining the world's richest person by December 31, 2026, reflecting his commanding $839 billion net worth per Forbes' March 2026 rankings—over $500 billion ahead of challengers like Larry Page ($257 billion) or Jeff Bezos ($224 billion). This dominance stems from explosive growth in Tesla's AI initiatives, Starlink revenue, and xAI integrations, further amplified by SpaceX's confidential IPO filing on April 1 targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation, potentially catapulting Musk toward trillionaire status by mid-year. Realistic upsets would require catastrophic Tesla or SpaceX setbacks alongside unprecedented surges for rivals like Jensen Huang (Nvidia AI boom) or Mark Zuckerberg (Meta metaverse pivot), though the yawning gap makes such shifts improbable absent market turmoil. Watch for SpaceX listing details and Q2 earnings.

This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
Volume
$1,441,937
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an overwhelming 90.5% implied probability to Elon Musk remaining the world's richest person by December 31, 2026, reflecting his commanding $839 billion net worth per Forbes' March 2026 rankings—over $500 billion ahead of challengers like Larry Page ($257 billion) or Jeff Bezos ($224 billion). This dominance stems from explosive growth in Tesla's AI initiatives, Starlink revenue, and xAI integrations, further amplified by SpaceX's confidential IPO filing on April 1 targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation, potentially catapulting Musk toward trillionaire status by mid-year. Realistic upsets would require catastrophic Tesla or SpaceX setbacks alongside unprecedented surges for rivals like Jensen Huang (Nvidia AI boom) or Mark Zuckerberg (Meta metaverse pivot), though the yawning gap makes such shifts improbable absent market turmoil. Watch for SpaceX listing details and Q2 earnings.

This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
Volume
$1,441,937
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Richest person on December 31, 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Elon Musk" at 91%, followed by "Jensen Huang" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 91¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Richest person on December 31, 2026?" has generated $1.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Richest person on December 31, 2026?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Richest person on December 31, 2026?" is "Elon Musk" at 91%, meaning the market assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jensen Huang" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Richest person on December 31, 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.