Market icon
Politics·Senate Primary

Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Senate Primary

Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary Winner

Kevin Hern 89%

Matt Pinnell 2.9%

Wayne Lonny Washington 1.7%

Stephanie Bice 1.2%

Polymarket

$55,234 Vol.

Kevin Hern 89%

Matt Pinnell 2.9%

Wayne Lonny Washington 1.7%

Stephanie Bice 1.2%

Polymarket

$55,234 Vol.

Kevin Hern

$10,289 Vol.

89%

Matt Pinnell

$657 Vol.

3%

Wayne Lonny Washington

$872 Vol.

2%

Stephanie Bice

$2,069 Vol.

1%

John M. O’Connor

$600 Vol.

1%

Markwayne Mullin

$37,681 Vol.

1%

Ron Meinhardt

$991 Vol.

1%

Tammy Swearengin

$716 Vol.

1%

Nick Hankins

$669 Vol.

1%

Donelle Harder

$691 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oklahoma. If no 2026 Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Rep. Kevin Hern commands 88.5% trader consensus as the Republican primary frontrunner for Oklahoma's open U.S. Senate seat, driven by his March 11 announcement following Sen. Markwayne Mullin's nomination as DHS Secretary, rapid endorsements from President Trump, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, and NRSC Chair Tim Scott, and early polls like Club for Growth showing him at 52% over hypothetical rivals. The April 3 candidate filing deadline locked in a limited field of lesser-known challengers including Nick Hankins and Ron Meinhardt, reinforcing Hern's incumbency-like advantages from his OK-01 House seat and fundraising edge ahead of the June 16 primary and potential August runoff. Lt. Gov. Matt Pinnell's 2.9% reflects residual speculation despite his March exit from elected politics, while others trail amid weak opposition.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oklahoma.

If no 2026 Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$55,234
End Date
Jun 16, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 5, 2026, 5:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oklahoma. If no 2026 Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oklahoma. If no 2026 Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Rep. Kevin Hern commands 88.5% trader consensus as the Republican primary frontrunner for Oklahoma's open U.S. Senate seat, driven by his March 11 announcement following Sen. Markwayne Mullin's nomination as DHS Secretary, rapid endorsements from President Trump, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, and NRSC Chair Tim Scott, and early polls like Club for Growth showing him at 52% over hypothetical rivals. The April 3 candidate filing deadline locked in a limited field of lesser-known challengers including Nick Hankins and Ron Meinhardt, reinforcing Hern's incumbency-like advantages from his OK-01 House seat and fundraising edge ahead of the June 16 primary and potential August runoff. Lt. Gov. Matt Pinnell's 2.9% reflects residual speculation despite his March exit from elected politics, while others trail amid weak opposition.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oklahoma.

If no 2026 Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$55,234
End Date
Jun 16, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 5, 2026, 5:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oklahoma. If no 2026 Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Kevin Hern" at 89%, followed by "Matt Pinnell" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 89¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 89% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary Winner" has generated $55.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary Winner," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary Winner" is "Kevin Hern" at 89%, meaning the market assigns a 89% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Matt Pinnell" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.