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icon for New Zealand Election: 3rd Place
Politics·Global Elections

New Zealand Election: 3rd Place

icon for New Zealand Election: 3rd Place
Politics·Global Elections

New Zealand Election: 3rd Place

New Zealand First Party 65%

Green Party 29%

ACT New Zealand 19.5%

National Party 7%

Polymarket
NEW

New Zealand First Party 65%

Green Party 29%

ACT New Zealand 19.5%

National Party 7%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for New Zealand First Party

New Zealand First Party

$229 Vol.

65%

icon for Green Party

Green Party

$318 Vol.

21%

icon for ACT New Zealand

ACT New Zealand

$236 Vol.

20%

icon for National Party

National Party

$132 Vol.

7%

icon for Te Pāti Māori

Te Pāti Māori

$227 Vol.

9%

icon for Labour Party

Labour Party

$367 Vol.

1%

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Trader consensus on Polymarket prices New Zealand First at 68.5% implied probability to secure third place in party vote share for the November 7, 2026 general election under the mixed-member proportional system, reflecting its poll surge to 15% in the April 16 Talbot Mills survey—well ahead of Greens (7%), ACT (8%), and Te Pāti Māori (2%)—with Labour leading at 36% and National at 29%. The April 11-15 1News-Verian poll showed a closer contest at Greens 11% versus New Zealand First 10%, but the NZ Herald-Motu Poll of Polls confirms New Zealand First's median above 10%, buoyed by National's drop below 30% amid Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's survived April 21 leadership vote and early May confidence challenge. Coalition stability and economic pressures continue favoring the populist party's gains over rivals.

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.

If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Volume
$1,509
End Date
Nov 7, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Trader consensus on Polymarket prices New Zealand First at 68.5% implied probability to secure third place in party vote share for the November 7, 2026 general election under the mixed-member proportional system, reflecting its poll surge to 15% in the April 16 Talbot Mills survey—well ahead of Greens (7%), ACT (8%), and Te Pāti Māori (2%)—with Labour leading at 36% and National at 29%. The April 11-15 1News-Verian poll showed a closer contest at Greens 11% versus New Zealand First 10%, but the NZ Herald-Motu Poll of Polls confirms New Zealand First's median above 10%, buoyed by National's drop below 30% amid Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's survived April 21 leadership vote and early May confidence challenge. Coalition stability and economic pressures continue favoring the populist party's gains over rivals.

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.

If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Volume
$1,509
End Date
Nov 7, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"New Zealand Election: 3rd Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "New Zealand First Party" at 65%, followed by "Green Party" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 65¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"New Zealand Election: 3rd Place" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 30, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "New Zealand Election: 3rd Place," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "New Zealand Election: 3rd Place" is "New Zealand First Party" at 65%, meaning the market assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Green Party" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "New Zealand Election: 3rd Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.