**NATO's treaty framework and recent summit outcomes underpin traders' near-certain view that dissolution before 2027 remains improbable.** No member state has invoked Article 13 withdrawal procedures or issued formal notices of exit as of late September 2026, while the July Ankara summit produced explicit U.S. reaffirmation of continued alliance participation alongside European commitments to higher defense spending targets through 2035. Discussions of burden-shifting, European command structures, and contingency planning for reduced U.S. involvement reflect adaptation pressures rather than moves toward formal termination. Structural requirements for unanimous consent on core treaty changes and the absence of coordinated exit campaigns further constrain rapid dissolution. Credible shifts would require an abrupt U.S. withdrawal announcement, a major Article 5 crisis exposing irreconcilable divisions, or coordinated multi-member exits—none of which show signs of materializing within the narrow remaining window.