Incumbent Rep. Ilhan Omar holds a commanding lead in trader consensus at 85.5% for the August 11, 2026, MN-05 Democratic primary, driven by her strong incumbency advantage in the safely Democratic district and dominant performance in March DFL Senate district conventions, where she secured overwhelming delegate support. Challenger Latonya Reeves, a DFL state executive officer and labor leader emphasizing local public service, trails at 14.5% amid limited fundraising—reportedly under $300 recently—and minimal delegate counts in the single digits. Absent polls, markets reflect Omar's history of primary victories, including 56% in 2024, with the CD5 DFL endorsing convention looming as a potential catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedMN-05 Democratic Primary Winner
MN-05 Democratic Primary Winner
$15,926 Vol.
$15,926 Vol.
Ilhan Omar
86%
Latonya Reeves
15%
$15,926 Vol.
$15,926 Vol.
Ilhan Omar
86%
Latonya Reeves
15%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market Opened: Dec 19, 2025, 4:53 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Ilhan Omar holds a commanding lead in trader consensus at 85.5% for the August 11, 2026, MN-05 Democratic primary, driven by her strong incumbency advantage in the safely Democratic district and dominant performance in March DFL Senate district conventions, where she secured overwhelming delegate support. Challenger Latonya Reeves, a DFL state executive officer and labor leader emphasizing local public service, trails at 14.5% amid limited fundraising—reportedly under $300 recently—and minimal delegate counts in the single digits. Absent polls, markets reflect Omar's history of primary victories, including 56% in 2024, with the CD5 DFL endorsing convention looming as a potential catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated


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