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Elections·Minnesota Unrest

MN-05 Democratic Primary Winner

Market icon
Elections·Minnesota Unrest

MN-05 Democratic Primary Winner

$15,883 Vol.

Polymarket

$15,883 Vol.

Ilhan Omar

$15,883 Vol.

86%

Latonya Reeves

$0 Vol.

15%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.**Incumbent Rep. Ilhan Omar holds an 85.5% implied probability among traders for the MN-05 Democratic primary on August 11, reflecting her entrenched organizational strength in this safe Democratic Minneapolis district, recent labor union endorsements like Minnesota AFL-CIO's March backing, and dominant local DFL convention showings where challengers lag in delegates.** Latonya Reeves, a DNC member and union organizer who launched her centrist, locally focused bid in late 2025, garners 14.5% amid ongoing critiques of Omar's national controversies but struggles with minimal fundraising—reportedly under $300 recently—and limited grassroots traction. Former DHS prosecutor Julie Le's March 12 entry has yet to dent odds significantly; upcoming precinct caucuses, FEC reports, and potential endorsements will test these dynamics in Minnesota's open primary system.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$15,883
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 19, 2025, 4:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.**Incumbent Rep. Ilhan Omar holds an 85.5% implied probability among traders for the MN-05 Democratic primary on August 11, reflecting her entrenched organizational strength in this safe Democratic Minneapolis district, recent labor union endorsements like Minnesota AFL-CIO's March backing, and dominant local DFL convention showings where challengers lag in delegates.** Latonya Reeves, a DNC member and union organizer who launched her centrist, locally focused bid in late 2025, garners 14.5% amid ongoing critiques of Omar's national controversies but struggles with minimal fundraising—reportedly under $300 recently—and limited grassroots traction. Former DHS prosecutor Julie Le's March 12 entry has yet to dent odds significantly; upcoming precinct caucuses, FEC reports, and potential endorsements will test these dynamics in Minnesota's open primary system.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$15,883
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 19, 2025, 4:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MN-05 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ilhan Omar" at 86%, followed by "Latonya Reeves" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 86¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "MN-05 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $15.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 19, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "MN-05 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MN-05 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Ilhan Omar" at 86%, meaning the market assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Latonya Reeves" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MN-05 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.