Mexico’s annual inflation path for 2026 reflects a gradual moderation from early-year peaks near 4.6%, with the latest August reading at 3.26% year-over-year after a July low of 3.12%. Banxico’s policy rate remains anchored at 6.50% following prior cuts, as the central bank projects headline inflation ending 2026 near 3.5% while private-sector forecasts cluster around 4.0–4.2%, citing persistent services prices and upside risks from agricultural inputs, energy volatility, and USMCA-related trade uncertainty. Market-implied odds favoring the 4.00–4.49% bucket align with these consensus estimates and the observed stickiness in core inflation near 3.9%, tempered by the possibility of further cooling if labor-market softening and subdued demand continue through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.00% to 4.49% 37%
3.00% to 3.49% 21.3%
3.50% to 3.99% 14.9%
4.50% to 4.99% 8%
$67,209 Vol.
$67,209 Vol.
Jan 7, 2027
<2.50%
7%
2.50% to 2.99%
7%
3.00% to 3.49%
21%
3.50% to 3.99%
15%
4.00% to 4.49%
37%
4.50% to 4.99%
8%
5.00% to 5.49%
4%
5.50%+
2%
4.00% to 4.49% 37%
3.00% to 3.49% 21.3%
3.50% to 3.99% 14.9%
4.50% to 4.99% 8%
$67,209 Vol.
$67,209 Vol.
Jan 7, 2027
<2.50%
$1,195 Vol.
7%
2.50% to 2.99%
$4,895 Vol.
7%
3.00% to 3.49%
$29,105 Vol.
21%
3.50% to 3.99%
$4,238 Vol.
15%
4.00% to 4.49%
$13,991 Vol.
37%
4.50% to 4.99%
$4,932 Vol.
8%
5.00% to 5.49%
$2,577 Vol.
4%
5.50%+
$6,318 Vol.
2%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioMexico’s annual inflation path for 2026 reflects a gradual moderation from early-year peaks near 4.6%, with the latest August reading at 3.26% year-over-year after a July low of 3.12%. Banxico’s policy rate remains anchored at 6.50% following prior cuts, as the central bank projects headline inflation ending 2026 near 3.5% while private-sector forecasts cluster around 4.0–4.2%, citing persistent services prices and upside risks from agricultural inputs, energy volatility, and USMCA-related trade uncertainty. Market-implied odds favoring the 4.00–4.49% bucket align with these consensus estimates and the observed stickiness in core inflation near 3.9%, tempered by the possibility of further cooling if labor-market softening and subdued demand continue through year-end.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Market Opened: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$67,209End Date
Jan 8, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioMexico’s annual inflation path for 2026 reflects a gradual moderation from early-year peaks near 4.6%, with the latest August reading at 3.26% year-over-year after a July low of 3.12%. Banxico’s policy rate remains anchored at 6.50% following prior cuts, as the central bank projects headline inflation ending 2026 near 3.5% while private-sector forecasts cluster around 4.0–4.2%, citing persistent services prices and upside risks from agricultural inputs, energy volatility, and USMCA-related trade uncertainty. Market-implied odds favoring the 4.00–4.49% bucket align with these consensus estimates and the observed stickiness in core inflation near 3.9%, tempered by the possibility of further cooling if labor-market softening and subdued demand continue through year-end.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Volume
$67,209End Date
Jan 8, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Mexico’s annual inflation path for 2026 reflects a gradual moderation from early-year peaks near 4.6%, with the latest August reading at 3.26% year-over-year after a July low of 3.12%. Banxico’s policy rate remains anchored at 6.50% following prior cuts, as the central bank projects headline inflation ending 2026 near 3.5% while private-sector forecasts cluster around 4.0–4.2%, citing persistent services prices and upside risks from agricultural inputs, energy volatility, and USMCA-related trade uncertainty. Market-implied odds favoring the 4.00–4.49% bucket align with these consensus estimates and the observed stickiness in core inflation near 3.9%, tempered by the possibility of further cooling if labor-market softening and subdued demand continue through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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