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Economy·Inflation

Mexico Annual Inflation 2026

Market icon
Economy·Inflation

Mexico Annual Inflation 2026

3.50% to 3.99% 37.5%

<2.50% 22.4%

4.50% to 4.99% 19%

5.00% to 5.49% 15.1%

Polymarket

$34,809 Vol.

3.50% to 3.99% 37.5%

<2.50% 22.4%

4.50% to 4.99% 19%

5.00% to 5.49% 15.1%

Polymarket

$34,809 Vol.

<2.50%

$0 Vol.

22%

2.50% to 2.99%

$0 Vol.

1%

3.00% to 3.49%

$25,671 Vol.

23%

3.50% to 3.99%

$344 Vol.

29%

4.00% to 4.49%

$357 Vol.

27%

4.50% to 4.99%

$3,063 Vol.

23%

5.00% to 5.49%

$401 Vol.

26%

5.50%+

$4,972 Vol.

41%

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month. The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioPolymarket traders' closely matched odds for Mexico's 2026 annual inflation—led by 5.50%+ at 36%, trailed by 3.50%-3.99% (31.9%) and 4.00%-4.49% (30.5%)—reflect uncertainty over whether March's headline CPI surge to 4.59% year-over-year, driven by food and energy pressures like tomatoes, signals persistent upside risks or a temporary blip. Banxico's surprise 25 basis-point rate cut to 6.75% on March 26 in a split 3-2 vote underscores confidence in convergence to its 3% target by Q3 2026, with core inflation easing slightly to 4.46%. Yet sticky core measures and IMF's 3.9% average forecast highlight competitive dynamics, hinging on April CPI data (due mid-May) and May's policy meeting amid geopolitical tensions.

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).

This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.

The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/

Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Volume
$34,809
End Date
Jan 8, 2027
Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month. The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month. The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioPolymarket traders' closely matched odds for Mexico's 2026 annual inflation—led by 5.50%+ at 36%, trailed by 3.50%-3.99% (31.9%) and 4.00%-4.49% (30.5%)—reflect uncertainty over whether March's headline CPI surge to 4.59% year-over-year, driven by food and energy pressures like tomatoes, signals persistent upside risks or a temporary blip. Banxico's surprise 25 basis-point rate cut to 6.75% on March 26 in a split 3-2 vote underscores confidence in convergence to its 3% target by Q3 2026, with core inflation easing slightly to 4.46%. Yet sticky core measures and IMF's 3.9% average forecast highlight competitive dynamics, hinging on April CPI data (due mid-May) and May's policy meeting amid geopolitical tensions.

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).

This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.

The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/

Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Volume
$34,809
End Date
Jan 8, 2027
Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month. The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Mexico Annual Inflation 2026" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "5.50%+" at 41%, followed by "3.50% to 3.99%" at 29%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 41¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Mexico Annual Inflation 2026" has generated $34.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Mexico Annual Inflation 2026," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Mexico Annual Inflation 2026" is "5.50%+" at 41%, meaning the market assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "3.50% to 3.99%" at 29%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Mexico Annual Inflation 2026" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.