Polymarket traders price a 38.5% implied probability on April 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) month-over-month at 0.6%, edging out 0.5% (30.0%) and 0.7% (24.0%) in a closely contested field, driven by March's scorching 0.9% MoM surge—the largest since 2022—that propelled year-over-year inflation to 3.3% and reset expectations higher. Divergent nowcasts, such as the Cleveland Fed's 0.45% model estimate, clash with elevated New York Fed consumer inflation expectations at 3.6% one-year ahead and persistent shelter cost pressures, creating uncertainty around goods disinflation and energy trends. The May 12 BLS release looms as the pivotal catalyst, with thresholds near 0.6% poised to reshape Federal Reserve rate cut odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$61,578 Vol.
$61,578 Vol.
May 12, 2026
≤0.3%
1%
0.4%
7%
0.5%
30%
0.6%
39%
0.7%
24%
0.8%
3%
0.9%
1%
1.0%
1%
≥1.1%
1%
$61,578 Vol.
$61,578 Vol.
May 12, 2026
≤0.3%
$10,276 Vol.
1%
0.4%
$7,865 Vol.
7%
0.5%
$10,937 Vol.
30%
0.6%
$15,063 Vol.
39%
0.7%
$6,315 Vol.
24%
0.8%
$4,203 Vol.
3%
0.9%
$2,224 Vol.
1%
1.0%
$2,609 Vol.
1%
≥1.1%
$2,085 Vol.
1%
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in April 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Polymarket traders price a 38.5% implied probability on April 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) month-over-month at 0.6%, edging out 0.5% (30.0%) and 0.7% (24.0%) in a closely contested field, driven by March's scorching 0.9% MoM surge—the largest since 2022—that propelled year-over-year inflation to 3.3% and reset expectations higher. Divergent nowcasts, such as the Cleveland Fed's 0.45% model estimate, clash with elevated New York Fed consumer inflation expectations at 3.6% one-year ahead and persistent shelter cost pressures, creating uncertainty around goods disinflation and energy trends. The May 12 BLS release looms as the pivotal catalyst, with thresholds near 0.6% poised to reshape Federal Reserve rate cut odds.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in April 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in April 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Apr 10, 2026, 4:49 PM ET
Volume
$61,578End Date
May 12, 2026Market Opened
Apr 10, 2026, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in April 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Polymarket traders price a 38.5% implied probability on April 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) month-over-month at 0.6%, edging out 0.5% (30.0%) and 0.7% (24.0%) in a closely contested field, driven by March's scorching 0.9% MoM surge—the largest since 2022—that propelled year-over-year inflation to 3.3% and reset expectations higher. Divergent nowcasts, such as the Cleveland Fed's 0.45% model estimate, clash with elevated New York Fed consumer inflation expectations at 3.6% one-year ahead and persistent shelter cost pressures, creating uncertainty around goods disinflation and energy trends. The May 12 BLS release looms as the pivotal catalyst, with thresholds near 0.6% poised to reshape Federal Reserve rate cut odds.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in April 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in April 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$61,578End Date
May 12, 2026Market Opened
Apr 10, 2026, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price a 38.5% implied probability on April 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) month-over-month at 0.6%, edging out 0.5% (30.0%) and 0.7% (24.0%) in a closely contested field, driven by March's scorching 0.9% MoM surge—the largest since 2022—that propelled year-over-year inflation to 3.3% and reset expectations higher. Divergent nowcasts, such as the Cleveland Fed's 0.45% model estimate, clash with elevated New York Fed consumer inflation expectations at 3.6% one-year ahead and persistent shelter cost pressures, creating uncertainty around goods disinflation and energy trends. The May 12 BLS release looms as the pivotal catalyst, with thresholds near 0.6% poised to reshape Federal Reserve rate cut odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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