Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects a closely contested race for Mexico's 2026 annual CPI inflation, with the 3.00%-3.49% bin leading at 31.1% implied probability, neck-and-neck with 3.50%-3.99% and 4.50%-4.99% both at 28.0%. Recent acceleration in headline inflation—to 4.02% in February and 4.63% in early March per INEGI—has lifted odds on higher bins amid sticky core pressures around 4.5% in Q1, yet Banxico's surprise 25 basis point rate cut to 6.75% on March 26 signaled confidence in moderation despite the split vote. BBVA Research forecasts 3.9% year-end, aligning with trader consensus for sub-5% convergence toward the 3% target, hinging on upcoming April data and May Banxico meeting for disinflation cues versus persistent services inflation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated3.00% to 3.49% 30.3%
4.00% to 4.49% 29%
4.50% to 4.99% 28%
5.00% to 5.49% 26.3%
$33,843 Vol.
$33,843 Vol.
Jan 8, 2027
<2.50%
5%
2.50% to 2.99%
3%
3.00% to 3.49%
30%
3.50% to 3.99%
23%
4.00% to 4.49%
29%
4.50% to 4.99%
28%
5.00% to 5.49%
19%
5.50%+
8%
3.00% to 3.49% 30.3%
4.00% to 4.49% 29%
4.50% to 4.99% 28%
5.00% to 5.49% 26.3%
$33,843 Vol.
$33,843 Vol.
Jan 8, 2027
<2.50%
$0 Vol.
5%
2.50% to 2.99%
$0 Vol.
3%
3.00% to 3.49%
$25,641 Vol.
30%
3.50% to 3.99%
$250 Vol.
23%
4.00% to 4.49%
$286 Vol.
29%
4.50% to 4.99%
$2,995 Vol.
28%
5.00% to 5.49%
$356 Vol.
19%
5.50%+
$4,316 Vol.
8%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioTrader sentiment on Polymarket reflects a closely contested race for Mexico's 2026 annual CPI inflation, with the 3.00%-3.49% bin leading at 31.1% implied probability, neck-and-neck with 3.50%-3.99% and 4.50%-4.99% both at 28.0%. Recent acceleration in headline inflation—to 4.02% in February and 4.63% in early March per INEGI—has lifted odds on higher bins amid sticky core pressures around 4.5% in Q1, yet Banxico's surprise 25 basis point rate cut to 6.75% on March 26 signaled confidence in moderation despite the split vote. BBVA Research forecasts 3.9% year-end, aligning with trader consensus for sub-5% convergence toward the 3% target, hinging on upcoming April data and May Banxico meeting for disinflation cues versus persistent services inflation.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Market Opened: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$33,843End Date
Jan 8, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioTrader sentiment on Polymarket reflects a closely contested race for Mexico's 2026 annual CPI inflation, with the 3.00%-3.49% bin leading at 31.1% implied probability, neck-and-neck with 3.50%-3.99% and 4.50%-4.99% both at 28.0%. Recent acceleration in headline inflation—to 4.02% in February and 4.63% in early March per INEGI—has lifted odds on higher bins amid sticky core pressures around 4.5% in Q1, yet Banxico's surprise 25 basis point rate cut to 6.75% on March 26 signaled confidence in moderation despite the split vote. BBVA Research forecasts 3.9% year-end, aligning with trader consensus for sub-5% convergence toward the 3% target, hinging on upcoming April data and May Banxico meeting for disinflation cues versus persistent services inflation.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Volume
$33,843End Date
Jan 8, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects a closely contested race for Mexico's 2026 annual CPI inflation, with the 3.00%-3.49% bin leading at 31.1% implied probability, neck-and-neck with 3.50%-3.99% and 4.50%-4.99% both at 28.0%. Recent acceleration in headline inflation—to 4.02% in February and 4.63% in early March per INEGI—has lifted odds on higher bins amid sticky core pressures around 4.5% in Q1, yet Banxico's surprise 25 basis point rate cut to 6.75% on March 26 signaled confidence in moderation despite the split vote. BBVA Research forecasts 3.9% year-end, aligning with trader consensus for sub-5% convergence toward the 3% target, hinging on upcoming April data and May Banxico meeting for disinflation cues versus persistent services inflation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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