Name: Kamala wins and immediately bans X?
Start: 2024-09-18T01:52:48.524413Z
End: 2025-02-03T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris wins the 2024 United States presidential election and signs an official order or takes executive action to ban X by 11:59 PM ET on February 3 (within two weeks of her inauguration on January 20, 2025). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If Kamala Harris loses the election this market will immediately resolve to "No."

A ban is defined as an official action prohibiting the majority of Americans from downloading and/or using X.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Kamala wins and immediately bans X?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris officially announces that she is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election, between July 30, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Kamala Harris will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether she actually filed a nomination to run, or whether she actually files a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Kamala Harris (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or her official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Kamala Harris announce Presidential run by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Former United States Vice President Kamala Harris announces that she is running for Governor of California in the 2026 midterm election, between June 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Kamala Harris will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether she actually filed a nomination to run, or whether she actually files a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Kamala Harris (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or her official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

Will Kamala Harris announce California Governor run in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris and/or Douglas Emhoff announce their intention to divorce between January 21 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by December 31, 2025 of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market.

The resolution source will be statements from Kamala Harris and/or Douglas Emhoff, and their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Kamala Harris divorce in 2025?

On August 18, 2025, President Donald J. Trump announced his commitment to eliminate mail-in voting and voting machines in U.S. elections, ahead of the 2026 midterms.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that inhibits mail-in voting or voting machines from use for the 2026 midterm election by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Any executive action or legislation that restricts, limits, or prohibits the use of mail-in voting or voting machines in any way will qualify, even if the action is delayed, suspended, or subsequently blocked by judicial or other actions.

This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information from major news outlets or government statements will also be used.

Will Trump act to ban mail-in voting or voting machines in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, sports event contracts listed by a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market (DCM), whether accessed directly or through a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM), are legally prohibited or blocked for users in at least one U.S. state or nationwide. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A qualifying ban must have gone into effect during the market window and may occur through any of the following:

CFTC Action: A final order, rule, or directive under Regulation 40.11 or other CFTC authority that results in the removal or suspension of sports event contracts, either nationally or within one or more states.

Court Order or Judgment: A temporary restraining order, preliminary injunction, permanent injunction, or final judgment issued by a U.S. federal or state court that has the effect of suspending or terminating user access to sports event contracts in one or more states or nationwide. This includes situations where a court denies an exchange’s claim of federal preemption and thereby allows a state to enforce its gambling laws against sports event contracts while adjudication is pending, leading to blocked access in that state.

State Enforcement Upheld by Courts: If a state action (such as a cease-and-desist order or regulatory enforcement) is challenged on preemption grounds and the court declines to enjoin the state, resulting in blocked access to sports event contracts in that state, this will qualify.

To resolve “Yes,” the block or ban must actually take effect (users lose access or ability to trade/maintain positions). Mere announcements, proposed rules, or pending litigation without effect do not qualify.

Voluntary pauses or withdrawals by a DCM or FCM, absent legal compulsion, do not qualify.

If a qualifying block takes effect and is implemented the market will still resolve “Yes” regardless if it is later stayed, reversed, or vacated. 

Actions ordered before the deadline but which take effect only after, will not qulaify. 

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. 

Will sports prediction markets be banned in any U.S. state in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual  will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Katie Porter withdraws from or officially announces her withdrawal from the 2026 California Governor race, or announces the suspension of her 2026 California Governor campaign, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Katie Porter or her official/legal representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Katie Porter drops out of the CA Gov race by Dec 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Nancy Pelosi between August 1, and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Nancy Pelosi federally charged in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announces that she is running for Senate in the 2026 midterm election, between April 14, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by AOC will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether she actually filed a nomination to run, or whether she actually files a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by AOC (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or her official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AOC announces senate run in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama serves any time in custody in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between July 22 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Obama in jail in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nikita Bier ceases to be Head of Product of X for any length of time between October 14, and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Nikita Bier's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from X and/or Nikita Bier, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Nikita Bier out as Head of Product at X by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton between October 15, and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Hillary Clinton federally charged by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Trump impeached by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Xi Jinping visits the U.S. by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Xi physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States. Whether or not Xi enters US airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Xi visit the US by December 31?

On January 28, Visa announced a partnership with X for a 2025 launch of 'X Money'. The service will allow users to, among other things, secure funding for their X Wallets, perform P2P payments, and transfer funds to their bank accounts. You can read more about that here: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/x-partners-with-visa-to-launch-x-money-later-this-year/3464796

This market will resolve to "Yes" if X launches 'X Money' between January 27 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If 'X Money' is made publicly available for a majority of US users exclusively through purchase or X premium it will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". Limited betas will not qualify.

The feature does not have to be titled 'X Money' for this market to resolve to "Yes" so long as the feature provides one or more of the named services.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from X, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

X Money launch in 2025?

This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.

If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse Andy Barr for KY-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Biden, Jill Biden, Beau Biden, Hunter Biden, Ashley Biden, James "Jim" Biden, Sara Biden, Valerie Biden Owens, John Owens or Francis "Frank" Biden serve any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between March 17 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump jail Biden family member?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.  

Supreme Court vacancy in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Senator Mark Kelly by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Mark Kelly charged by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Internal Revenue Department ceases operations entirely by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the IRS is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Internal Revenue Service it will count as a "Yes" resolution.

If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump abolishes IRS in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pam Bondi ceases to be the US Attorney General for any period of time by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Bondi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rosie O'Donnell's U.S. citizenship is officially rescinded by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution sources will be information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Rosie O'Donnell citizenship revoked in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Biden is arrested between September 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Joe Biden arrested by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government sells any of its Bitcoin by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the US Government sell Bitcoin by December 31?

This market will resolve according to the candidate Bernie Sanders announces that he will vote for or endorses for the listed election.

If Bernie Sanders does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Bernie Sanders or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Bernie Sanders' endorsement.

Will Bernie endorse Antonio Delgado for NY-Gov by Nov 2 2026 ET?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell publicly accuses Donald Trump of criminal wrongdoing between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, she must explicitly state that Trump committed one or more specific crimes, or clearly refer to him as a criminal and Trump must be named directly.

The accusation must be made Maxwell and made public within the specified date range. 

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Ghislaine Maxwell accuses Trump of being a criminal?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action enacting a tariff on imports of semiconductors into the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only tariffs specifically targeting semiconductors will qualify. For example, a general tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) or country-specific tariff (tariffs on all imports from China) will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tariffs on semiconductors from a specific country will qualify.

Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Trump imposes tariff on semiconductors by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Chelsea Clinton announces she will run for Congress, either the House or the Senate, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Chelsea Clinton or her representative(s); however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.


Will Chelsea Clinton announce run for congress by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to establish a de minimis tax exemption on cryptocurrency transactions by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Such a bill must apply to US taxpaying persons in general; if a law applies only to specific companies or institutions, it will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market.

If the tax exemption only applies for specific types or classes of crypto assets (e.g., only Bitcoin or Ethereum, only American issued cryptocurrencies, or only NFTs), it will still count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.

If the bill is signed into law, or executive action is instituted before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of when it takes effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Kamala wins and immediately bans X?

Market Context

Kamala wins and immediately bans X?

Rules

Kamala wins and immediately bans X?

Market Context

Kamala wins and immediately bans X?

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