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US shelter-in-place order lifted in Jalisco by...?

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US shelter-in-place order lifted in Jalisco by...?

$66,736 Vol.

Feb 28, 2026
Polymarket

$66,736 Vol.

Polymarket

February 23

$28,964 Vol.

No

February 28

$37,773 Vol.

Yes

On February 22nd, 2026, the US mission to Mexico issued a security alert advising US citizens in Jalisco State (among other areas) to shelter in place (see: https://mx.usembassy.gov/security-alert-ongoing-security-operations-u-s-mission-mexico-february-22-2026/).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if US citizens throughout the state of Jalisco are no longer advised to shelter in place by the US Government by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only the cessation of US government “shelter in place” advice to US citizens throughout the entirety of the State of Jalisco will qualify. Revisions to shelter in place guidance which keep shelter-in-place guidance in place for parts of Jalisco will not count.

If the previously referenced alert is revised or replaced with another security alert or other US government guidance that continues US advice to citizens to shelter in place in any part of Jalisco, this will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.

Shelter in place advice includes any alert or guidance with that explicit wording or equivalent language (i.e. “stay indoors”, etc.). US State Department ‘Do Not Travel’ guidance will not be considered advice to shelter in place.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$66,736
End Date
Feb 28, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 22, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
On February 22nd, 2026, the US mission to Mexico issued a security alert advising US citizens in Jalisco State (among other areas) to shelter in place (see: https://mx.usembassy.gov/security-alert-ongoing-security-operations-u-s-mission-mexico-february-22-2026/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if US citizens throughout the state of Jalisco are no longer advised to shelter in place by the US Government by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only the cessation of US government “shelter in place” advice to US citizens throughout the entirety of the State of Jalisco will qualify. Revisions to shelter in place guidance which keep shelter-in-place guidance in place for parts of Jalisco will not count. If the previously referenced alert is revised or replaced with another security alert or other US government guidance that continues US advice to citizens to shelter in place in any part of Jalisco, this will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Shelter in place advice includes any alert or guidance with that explicit wording or equivalent language (i.e. “stay indoors”, etc.). US State Department ‘Do Not Travel’ guidance will not be considered advice to shelter in place. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"US shelter-in-place order lifted in Jalisco by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is " February 28" at 100%, followed by "February 23" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "US shelter-in-place order lifted in Jalisco by...?" has generated $66.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "US shelter-in-place order lifted in Jalisco by...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "US shelter-in-place order lifted in Jalisco by...?" is " February 28" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "February 23" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "US shelter-in-place order lifted in Jalisco by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.