Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

Market icon

Israel strikes Iran on...?

$10,781,618 Vol.

OUTCOMERESULT

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, maritime territory, or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Israel on Iranian soil, airspace, maritime territory, or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

Only actions by Israeli forces explicitly claimed by the Israeli government, or confirmed to have originated from Israeli territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks on Iran by proxy forces will not count toward the resolution of this market.

In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Volume
$10,781,618
End Date
Jun 20, 2025
Created At
Jun 13, 2025, 5:28 AM

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Beware of external links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

$10,781,618 Vol.

Market icon

Israel strikes Iran on...?

Saturday, June 14

$141,967 Vol.

Yes

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Sunday, June 15

$337,124 Vol.

Yes

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Monday, June 16

$393,495 Vol.

Yes

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Tuesday, June 17

$562,119 Vol.

Yes

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Wednesday, June 18

$499,640 Vol.

Yes

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Thursday, June 19

$607,994 Vol.

Yes

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Friday, June 20

$425,779 Vol.

Yes

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Saturday, June 21

$216,841 Vol.

Yes

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Sunday, June 22

$3,651,331 Vol.

Yes

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Monday, June 23

$266,010 Vol.

Yes

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Tuesday, June 24

$2,042,695 Vol.

Yes

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Wednesday, June 25

$486,483 Vol.

No

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Thursday, June 26

$266,337 Vol.

No

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Friday, June 27

$298,283 Vol.

No

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Saturday, June 28

$149,397 Vol.

No

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Sunday, June 29

$163,268 Vol.

No

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Monday, June 30

$272,854 Vol.

No

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About

Volume
$10,781,618
End Date
Jun 20, 2025
Created At
Jun 13, 2025, 5:28 AM