Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Israel strikes Iran on...?

$10,781,618 Vol.

Jun 20, 2025
Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, maritime territory, or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Israel on Iranian soil, airspace, maritime territory, or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

Only actions by Israeli forces explicitly claimed by the Israeli government, or confirmed to have originated from Israeli territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks on Iran by proxy forces will not count toward the resolution of this market.

In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Volume
$10,781,618
End Date
Jun 20, 2025
Created At
Jun 13, 2025, 1:28 AM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, maritime territory, or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Israel on Iranian soil, airspace, maritime territory, or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Only actions by Israeli forces explicitly claimed by the Israeli government, or confirmed to have originated from Israeli territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks on Iran by proxy forces will not count toward the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Beware of external links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Israel strikes Iran on...?

$10,781,618 Vol.

Polymarket

Saturday, June 14

$141,967 Vol.

Yes

Sunday, June 15

$337,124 Vol.

Yes

Monday, June 16

$393,495 Vol.

Yes

Tuesday, June 17

$562,119 Vol.

Yes

Wednesday, June 18

$499,640 Vol.

Yes

Thursday, June 19

$607,994 Vol.

Yes

Friday, June 20

$425,779 Vol.

Yes

Saturday, June 21

$216,841 Vol.

Yes

Sunday, June 22

$3,651,331 Vol.

Yes

Monday, June 23

$266,010 Vol.

Yes

Tuesday, June 24

$2,042,695 Vol.

Yes

Wednesday, June 25

$486,483 Vol.

No

Thursday, June 26

$266,337 Vol.

No

Friday, June 27

$298,283 Vol.

No

Saturday, June 28

$149,397 Vol.

No

Sunday, June 29

$163,268 Vol.

No

Monday, June 30

$272,854 Vol.

No

Beware of external links.