Amid escalating US-Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian forces have enforced control by striking non-compliant commercial vessels, including a US-UAE linked cargo ship on March 17 after ignored warnings and another tanker incident earlier in March that caught fire. Recent Houthi missile strikes on Israel over the past week, coupled with reports of Iran pressing the group for renewed Red Sea shipping attacks, heighten escalation risks, though President Trump signaled a US war end within two to three weeks. US and NATO efforts to secure the strait continue, with ships now seeking Iranian clearance amid surging insurance costs and oil prices. Traders monitor for direct Iranian kinetic strikes or seizures on the market's specified date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIran successfully targets shipping on...?
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
$118,888 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 31
2%
$118,888 Vol.
March 31
$5,799 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid escalating US-Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian forces have enforced control by striking non-compliant commercial vessels, including a US-UAE linked cargo ship on March 17 after ignored warnings and another tanker incident earlier in March that caught fire. Recent Houthi missile strikes on Israel over the past week, coupled with reports of Iran pressing the group for renewed Red Sea shipping attacks, heighten escalation risks, though President Trump signaled a US war end within two to three weeks. US and NATO efforts to secure the strait continue, with ships now seeking Iranian clearance amid surging insurance costs and oil prices. Traders monitor for direct Iranian kinetic strikes or seizures on the market's specified date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$118,888End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid escalating US-Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian forces have enforced control by striking non-compliant commercial vessels, including a US-UAE linked cargo ship on March 17 after ignored warnings and another tanker incident earlier in March that caught fire. Recent Houthi missile strikes on Israel over the past week, coupled with reports of Iran pressing the group for renewed Red Sea shipping attacks, heighten escalation risks, though President Trump signaled a US war end within two to three weeks. US and NATO efforts to secure the strait continue, with ships now seeking Iranian clearance amid surging insurance costs and oil prices. Traders monitor for direct Iranian kinetic strikes or seizures on the market's specified date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$118,888End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid escalating US-Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian forces have enforced control by striking non-compliant commercial vessels, including a US-UAE linked cargo ship on March 17 after ignored warnings and another tanker incident earlier in March that caught fire. Recent Houthi missile strikes on Israel over the past week, coupled with reports of Iran pressing the group for renewed Red Sea shipping attacks, heighten escalation risks, though President Trump signaled a US war end within two to three weeks. US and NATO efforts to secure the strait continue, with ships now seeking Iranian clearance amid surging insurance costs and oil prices. Traders monitor for direct Iranian kinetic strikes or seizures on the market's specified date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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