How much revenue will the U.S. raise from tariffs in 2025?
$1,491,858 Vol.
$100–200b 38%
$200–500b 33%
<$100b 28.5%
$1–2t 1.4%
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
<$100b
$348,705 Vol.
29%
<$100b
$348,705 Vol.
29%
$100–200b
$480,671 Vol.
38%
$100–200b
$480,671 Vol.
38%
$200–500b
$218,333 Vol.
33%
$200–500b
$218,333 Vol.
33%
$500b–1t
$217,380 Vol.
<1%
$500b–1t
$217,380 Vol.
<1%
$1–2t
$126,324 Vol.
1%
$1–2t
$126,324 Vol.
1%
$2t+
$100,445 Vol.
1%
$2t+
$100,445 Vol.
1%
Rules
The U.S. government collected $82.2b in customs duties in FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2024/notes-to-the-financial-statements19.pdf).
This market will resolve according to the value of customs duties collected in FY 2025 according to the Financial Report of the United States Government published by the Treasury Department for FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/)
If the Treasury Department does not publish relevant data for FY 2025 by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source will be the Treasury Department.
This market will resolve according to the value of customs duties collected in FY 2025 according to the Financial Report of the United States Government published by the Treasury Department for FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/)
If the Treasury Department does not publish relevant data for FY 2025 by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source will be the Treasury Department.
Created At: Apr 15, 2025, 10:26 PM UTC
Volume
$1,491,858End Date
Feb 28, 2026Created At
Apr 15, 2025, 10:26 PM UTCResolver
0x2F5e3684c...$1,491,858 Vol.
How much revenue will the U.S. raise from tariffs in 2025?
$100–200b 38%
$200–500b 33%
<$100b 28.5%
$1–2t 1.4%
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
<$100b
$348,705 Vol.
29%
$100–200b
$480,671 Vol.
38%
$200–500b
$218,333 Vol.
33%
$500b–1t
$217,380 Vol.
<1%
$1–2t
$126,324 Vol.
1%
$2t+
$100,445 Vol.
1%
About
Volume
$1,491,858End Date
Feb 28, 2026Created At
Apr 15, 2025, 10:26 PM UTCResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Beware of external links.
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