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Tech·Tesla

How many Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?

Market icon
Tech·Tesla

How many Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?

Mar 31

Mar 31

350k–375k 72%

<350k 23%

375k–400k 4.9%

400k–425k <1%

Polymarket

$768,245 Vol.

350k–375k 72%

<350k 23%

375k–400k 4.9%

400k–425k <1%

Polymarket

$768,245 Vol.

<350k

$253,439 Vol.

23%

350k–375k

$139,295 Vol.

72%

375k–400k

$51,315 Vol.

5%

400k–425k

$28,971 Vol.

<1%

425k–450k

$57,148 Vol.

<1%

450k–475k

$167,245 Vol.

<1%

475k–500k

$44,368 Vol.

<1%

500k+

$26,475 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.Tesla's publication of a company-compiled analyst consensus estimating 365,645 vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026—primarily from Model 3/Y at 351,179 units—has anchored trader sentiment, driving 72% implied probability on the 350k–375k outcome as the market-implied consensus. This reflects an 8.6% year-over-year gain from Q1 2025's 336,681 but a seasonal 12.6% sequential drop from Q4 2025, amid testing post-U.S. EV tax credit expiration and softening global demand. Conservative previews like Deepwater's 345,000 estimate support 22.5% odds for under 350k, while negligible bets on higher bins signal low growth expectations without new catalysts like Cybertruck ramp-up or FSD advancements. Official numbers due early April could shift positioning amid end-of-quarter pushes.

Tesla's publication of a company-compiled analyst consensus estimating 365,645 vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026—primarily from Model 3/Y at 351,179 units—has anchored trader sentiment, driving 72% implied probability on the 350k–375k outcome as the market-implied consensus. This reflects an 8.6% year-over-year gain from Q1 2025's 336,681 but a seasonal 12.6% sequential drop from Q4 2025, amid testing post-U.S. EV tax credit expiration and softening global demand. Conservative previews like Deepwater's 345,000 estimate support 22.5% odds for under 350k, while negligible bets on higher bins signal low growth expectations without new catalysts like Cybertruck ramp-up or FSD advancements. Official numbers due early April could shift positioning amid end-of-quarter pushes.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.Tesla's publication of a company-compiled analyst consensus estimating 365,645 vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026—primarily from Model 3/Y at 351,179 units—has anchored trader sentiment, driving 72% implied probability on the 350k–375k outcome as the market-implied consensus. This reflects an 8.6% year-over-year gain from Q1 2025's 336,681 but a seasonal 12.6% sequential drop from Q4 2025, amid testing post-U.S. EV tax credit expiration and softening global demand. Conservative previews like Deepwater's 345,000 estimate support 22.5% odds for under 350k, while negligible bets on higher bins signal low growth expectations without new catalysts like Cybertruck ramp-up or FSD advancements. Official numbers due early April could shift positioning amid end-of-quarter pushes.

Tesla's publication of a company-compiled analyst consensus estimating 365,645 vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026—primarily from Model 3/Y at 351,179 units—has anchored trader sentiment, driving 72% implied probability on the 350k–375k outcome as the market-implied consensus. This reflects an 8.6% year-over-year gain from Q1 2025's 336,681 but a seasonal 12.6% sequential drop from Q4 2025, amid testing post-U.S. EV tax credit expiration and softening global demand. Conservative previews like Deepwater's 345,000 estimate support 22.5% odds for under 350k, while negligible bets on higher bins signal low growth expectations without new catalysts like Cybertruck ramp-up or FSD advancements. Official numbers due early April could shift positioning amid end-of-quarter pushes.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "350k–375k" at 72%, followed by "<350k" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 72¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 72% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?" has generated $768.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 2, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?" is "350k–375k" at 72%, meaning the market assigns a 72% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "<350k" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.