How many people will Trump deport in 2025?
$4,476,166 Vol.
250-500k 87.3%
500-750k 5.2%
<250k 5.0%
750k-1m 1.7%
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
<250k
$952,303 Vol.
5%
<250k
$952,303 Vol.
5%
250-500k
$1,046,490 Vol.
87%
250-500k
$1,046,490 Vol.
87%
500-750k
$441,026 Vol.
5%
500-750k
$441,026 Vol.
5%
750k-1m
$386,719 Vol.
2%
750k-1m
$386,719 Vol.
2%
1-1.25m
$378,236 Vol.
1%
1-1.25m
$378,236 Vol.
1%
1.25-1.5m
$321,209 Vol.
1%
1.25-1.5m
$321,209 Vol.
1%
1.5-1.75m
$350,193 Vol.
<1%
1.5-1.75m
$350,193 Vol.
<1%
1.75-2m
$294,237 Vol.
1%
1.75-2m
$294,237 Vol.
1%
2m+
$305,754 Vol.
1%
2m+
$305,754 Vol.
1%
Rules
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes between 250,000 (inclusive) and 500,000 (exclusive) non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes between 250,000 (inclusive) and 500,000 (exclusive) non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
Created At: Jan 5, 2025, 7:47 PM UTC
Volume
$4,476,166End Date
Dec 31, 2025Created At
Jan 5, 2025, 7:47 PM UTCResolver
0x2F5e3684c...$4,476,166 Vol.
How many people will Trump deport in 2025?
250-500k 87.3%
500-750k 5.2%
<250k 5.0%
750k-1m 1.7%
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
<250k
$952,303 Vol.
5%
250-500k
$1,046,490 Vol.
87%
500-750k
$441,026 Vol.
5%
750k-1m
$386,719 Vol.
2%
1-1.25m
$378,236 Vol.
1%
1.25-1.5m
$321,209 Vol.
1%
1.5-1.75m
$350,193 Vol.
<1%
1.75-2m
$294,237 Vol.
1%
2m+
$305,754 Vol.
1%
About
Volume
$4,476,166End Date
Dec 31, 2025Created At
Jan 5, 2025, 7:47 PM UTCResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Beware of external links.
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