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Geopolitics·Immigration

How many people will Trump deport in 2026?

Market icon
Geopolitics·Immigration

How many people will Trump deport in 2026?

Dec 31

Dec 31

300-400k 36%

400-500k 29%

200-300k 16%

<200k 9.8%

Polymarket

$74,534 Vol.

300-400k 36%

400-500k 29%

200-300k 16%

<200k 9.8%

Polymarket

$74,534 Vol.

<200k

$6,667 Vol.

10%

200-300k

$4,142 Vol.

16%

300-400k

$3,113 Vol.

36%

400-500k

$3,217 Vol.

29%

500-600k

$2,615 Vol.

6%

600-700k

$2,151 Vol.

2%

700-800k

$36,639 Vol.

2%

800-900k

$9,874 Vol.

2%

900k-1m

$2,495 Vol.

1%

>1m

$3,621 Vol.

3%

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus prices 300-400k deportations (35.5%) and 400-500k (28.5%) as top outcomes for calendar year 2026, reflecting ICE's FY2026 pace of roughly 1,250 removals per day through early April—projecting around 450k annually—following FY2025's 443k total amid ramped-up interior enforcement. This tight race stems from Q1 surges in arrests and detentions (quadrupled capacity to 70k beds) offset by a February-March dip after Minneapolis incidents, persistent third-country repatriation hurdles, immigration court backlogs, and DHS funding standoffs delaying data and expansion. Acceleration via workplace raids, 12k new ICE hires, or supplemental appropriations could favor higher bins; lawsuits, custody deaths, or sanctuary resistance might cap totals below 400k.

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year.

The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$74,534
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 11:41 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus prices 300-400k deportations (35.5%) and 400-500k (28.5%) as top outcomes for calendar year 2026, reflecting ICE's FY2026 pace of roughly 1,250 removals per day through early April—projecting around 450k annually—following FY2025's 443k total amid ramped-up interior enforcement. This tight race stems from Q1 surges in arrests and detentions (quadrupled capacity to 70k beds) offset by a February-March dip after Minneapolis incidents, persistent third-country repatriation hurdles, immigration court backlogs, and DHS funding standoffs delaying data and expansion. Acceleration via workplace raids, 12k new ICE hires, or supplemental appropriations could favor higher bins; lawsuits, custody deaths, or sanctuary resistance might cap totals below 400k.

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year.

The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$74,534
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 11:41 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many people will Trump deport in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "300-400k" at 36%, followed by "400-500k" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 36¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many people will Trump deport in 2026?" has generated $74.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many people will Trump deport in 2026?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many people will Trump deport in 2026?" is "300-400k" at 36%, meaning the market assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "400-500k" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many people will Trump deport in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.