Name: How many jobs added in August?
Start: 2025-07-28T18:02:07.437246Z
End: 2025-09-05T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve according to the nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for August 2025, scheduled to be released on September 5, 2025, 8:30 AM ET.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm

<50k

50k–100k

100k–150k

150k–200k

>200k

How many jobs added in August?

This market will resolve based on the seasonally adjusted number of federal employees, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) under the "All Employees, Federal" series (CES9091000001), displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001)

This market will resolve according to the decrease in the seasonally adjusted number of federal employees between the December 2024 report and the December 2025 report.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The difference will be calculated as the December 2024 value minus the December 2025 value.

The December 2024 figure will be based on the initial December 2024 BLS Employment Situation report scheduled for release on January 3, 2025, and the initial December 2025 figure will be based on the report scheduled for release on January 9, 2026. Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.

The resolution source will be the BLS Employment Situation data, specifically the series CES9091000001, available at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001 or the official BLS website.


Will Elon and DOGE cut 100-150k employees in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) ceases regular publication of any of the following reports: monthly Employment Situation reports (nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate), Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), Employment Cost Index, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), by December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

For purposes of this market, “ceases regular publication” means any of the following:

- The BLS officially announces it will no longer publish the report on its regular schedule.
- The BLS misses three consecutive scheduled releases of the report without providing the data within 30 days of each scheduled release date.
- The BLS announces that the report is discontinued, terminated, or permanently suspended.
- Legislative or executive action explicitly prohibits or defunds the publication of the report.

The following do NOT qualify as cessation:
- Temporary delays or postponements followed by subsequent publication (including delays caused by government shutdowns).
- Changes in methodology, seasonal adjustment, or calculation methods while continuing publication.
- Changes in publication frequency (e.g., monthly to quarterly) while maintaining regular releases.
- Format changes (e.g., digital-only, layout changes).
- Publishing preliminary or partial data with full data forthcoming.
- Changes to specific components within a report while the overall data series continues.
- Combining the report with other reports while still publishing the underlying data.
- BLS delays the jobs report due to a shutdown, then publishes it.
- BLS changes CPI methodology but continues publishing monthly CPI.
- BLS shifts employment data from monthly to quarterly.
- The Federal Reserve begins publishing employment data while BLS continues its own.
- BLS website outage delays posting, but data is released via other channels.
- BLS publishes preliminary data pending final adjustments.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. 

Will BLS stop reporting payroll data this year?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Bureau of Labor Statistics fails to release any monthly report on the Consumer Price Index by 11:59PM ET on the scheduled release date between December 1, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If an announcement is made by the White House or the BLS that the monthly CPI release will be delayed or cancelled altogether, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".

The resolution source for this market will be information from the BLS or a consensus of credible reporting. 

BLS delays another CPI release before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Brazil's unemployment rate for Q4 2025 is below 6.3% when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve according to IBGE's (https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/indicators#desemprego) public release of the Q4 2025 figure unemployment, expected in January 2026. If the publication of this figure is delayed beyond February 28, 2026 ET, this market will resolve according to the last published figure. 

Because this market's resolution source reports quarterly unemployment to one decimal point (e.g. 4.5%), this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.


Brazil unemployment below 6.3% for Q4 2025?

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP 'Advance Estimate' for Q3 2025, scheduled for release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on October 30, 2025, reports a growth rate of -5% or lower. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.

Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.

5% GDP contraction in Q3 2025?  

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions prove true at any point in 2025:

1) The "US recession in 2025?" market resolves to "Yes" (https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-in-2025).

2) The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by 5.0% or more over the 12 month period ending in any month between April 2025 and December 2025 according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm#current)

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will not resolve until all relevant figures are reported for the period of time encompassing December 2025.

The resolution sources for this market will be the NBER, BEA (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product), and BLS (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm#current), as well as the "US recession in 2025?" market on Polymarket.

US stagflation in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2025, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2025, scheduled for release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on January 30, 2026, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.

Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2025, which provides the initial full-year 2025 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.

Negative GDP growth in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:

1.  The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

2.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and the Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2025 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

US recession in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:

1.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 

2.  The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

US recession by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.

Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.

Negative GDP growth in 2026?

As of market creation, Paychex is estimated to release earnings on December 18, 2025. The Street consensus estimate for Paychex’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.23 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Paychex reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.23 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. 

If Paychex releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.)

If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” 

Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.


Will Paychex (PAYX) beat quarterly earnings?

This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on December 8, 2025. 

If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.

If data is not available for the listed date by January 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.

Will the total number of TSA passengers for December 8 be between 2,250,000 and 2,500,000?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2025 and the Fed's December 2025 meeting, currently scheduled for December 9-10. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate changes information following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fed rate hike in 2025?

As of market creation, FactSet Research Systems is estimated to release earnings on December 18, 2025. The Street consensus estimate for FactSet Research Systems’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $4.34 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if FactSet Research Systems reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $4.34 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. 

If FactSet Research Systems releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.)

If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” 

Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.


Will FactSet Research Systems (FDS) beat quarterly earnings?

As of market creation, Korn Ferry is estimated to release earnings on December 4, 2025. The Street consensus estimate for Korn Ferry’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.31 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Korn Ferry reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.31 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. 

If Korn Ferry releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.)

If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” 

Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.


Will Korn Ferry (KFY) beat quarterly earnings?

As of market creation, Dave & Buster's Entertainment is estimated to release earnings on December 9, 2025. The Street consensus estimate for Dave & Buster's Entertainment’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $-1.02 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dave & Buster's Entertainment reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $-1.02 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. 

If Dave & Buster's Entertainment releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.)

If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” 

Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.


Will Dave & Buster's Entertainment (PLAY) beat quarterly earnings?

This market will resolve based on federal government current expenditures as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).

This market will resolve to the amount federal government current expenditures decrease by between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. 

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The difference will be calculated as the Q4 2024 value minus the Q4 2025 value. 

The figures will be based on the initial Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 values as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank. Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used. 

The figures will be based on the Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 values as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank as soon as the data for Q4 2025 becomes available, regardless of whether later revisions are made.

This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).

Will Elon and DOGE cut less than $50b in federal spending in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Up” if the first official Nasdaq closing price for Paychex (PAYX) after the next earnings release is higher than the official Nasdaq closing price for PAYX prior to the earnings release.

This market will resolve to “Down” if the official Nasdaq closing price for Paychex (PAYX) after the next earnings release is lower than the official Nasdaq closing price for PAYX prior to the earnings release.

This market resolves based on the exact timing of the company’s first public release of earnings figures, regardless of whether they appear in a press release, earnings call, SEC filing, or similar. If the earnings figures are released before the close of regular trading hours, the same day’s closing price will be compared to the most recent prior closing price. If the numbers are released after the market has closed, the following day’s closing price will be compared to the most recent prior closing price.

The ‘most recent prior closing price’ always refers to the latest regular session close preceding the earnings release. Only official closing prices from regular trading days will be used.

If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.

If PAYX does not trade at all during the specified regular session, or if the company does not release earnings within 60 calendar days of this market's creation, this market will resolve 50-50.

If either of the relevant days is shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by Nasdaq for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If either of the relevant days has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market is the Nasdaq Historical Quotes page (nasdaq.com), specifically the Close values for PAYX.

Paychex (PAYX) Up or Down After Earnings?

As of market creation, Oracle is estimated to release earnings on December 8, 2025. The Street consensus estimate for Oracle’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.64 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Oracle reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.64 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. 

If Oracle releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.)

If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” 

Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.


Will Oracle (ORCL) beat quarterly earnings?

The CDC reported a general fertility rate of 53.7 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q2 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm). 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q3 2025 exceeds 53.7, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q3 2025 by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q3 2025, regardless of any subsequent revisions.

The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.

US fertility rate up in Q3 2025?

As of market creation, FedEx is estimated to release earnings on December 18, 2025. The Street consensus estimate for FedEx’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $4.03 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if FedEx reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $4.03 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. 

If FedEx releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.)

If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” 

Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.


Will FedEx (FDX) beat quarterly earnings?

As of market creation, Campbell's is estimated to release earnings on December 9, 2025. The Street consensus estimate for Campbell's’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.73 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Campbell's reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $0.73 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. 

If Campbell's releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.)

If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” 

Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.


Will Campbell's (CPB) beat quarterly earnings?

As of market creation, GameStop is estimated to release earnings on December 9, 2025. The Street consensus estimate for GameStop’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.20 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if GameStop reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $0.20 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. 

If GameStop releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.)

If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” 

Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.


Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings?

As of market creation, Adobe is estimated to release earnings on December 10, 2025. The Street consensus estimate for Adobe’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $5.40 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Adobe reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $5.40 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. 

If Adobe releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.)

If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” 

Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.


Will Adobe (ADBE) beat quarterly earnings?

As of market creation, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store is estimated to release earnings on November 27, 2025. The Street consensus estimate for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $-0.65 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cracker Barrel Old Country Store reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $-0.65 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. 

If Cracker Barrel Old Country Store releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.)

If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” 

Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.


How many jobs added in August?

<50k
$86,799 Vol.
Yes

50k–100k
$72,334 Vol.
No

100k–150k
$49,322 Vol.
No

150k–200k
$57,781 Vol.
No

>200k
$75,530 Vol.
No

Market Context

How many jobs added in August?

Rules

How many jobs added in August?

Market Context

How many jobs added in August?

About

Related

How many jobs added in August?

<50k$86,799 Vol.Yescircle check

50k–100k$72,334 Vol.Nocircle xmark

100k–150k$49,322 Vol.Nocircle xmark

150k–200k$57,781 Vol.Nocircle xmark

>200k$75,530 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

How many jobs added in August?

Rules

How many jobs added in August?

Market Context

How many jobs added in August?

About

Related

<50k
$86,799 Vol.
Yes

50k–100k
$72,334 Vol.
No

100k–150k
$49,322 Vol.
No

150k–200k
$57,781 Vol.
No

>200k
$75,530 Vol.
No