Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

Name: How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
Start: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Feb 28

Dec 31

4 36.1%

2 16.9%

3 14%

5 11.8%

$821,209 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

1
$56,327 Vol.
4%

2
$270,739 Vol.
17%

3
$87,135 Vol.
14%

4
$120,707 Vol.
36%

5
$21,250 Vol.
12%

6
$12,957 Vol.
4%

7
$27,253 Vol.
2%

8
$20,424 Vol.
3%

9
$46,875 Vol.
3%

10
$8,993 Vol.
2%

11
$12,740 Vol.
2%

12
$41,781 Vol.
<1%

13
$8,755 Vol.
<1%

14
$34,052 Vol.
<1%

15+
$12,914 Vol.
1%

Rules

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Beware of external links.

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

Feb 28

Dec 31

4 36.1%

2 16.9%

3 14%

5 11.8%

$821,209 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

$56,327 Vol.

$270,739 Vol.

17%

$87,135 Vol.

14%

$120,707 Vol.

36%

$21,250 Vol.

12%

$12,957 Vol.

$27,253 Vol.

$20,424 Vol.

$46,875 Vol.

$8,993 Vol.

$12,740 Vol.

$41,781 Vol.

<1%

$8,755 Vol.

<1%

$34,052 Vol.

<1%

15+

$12,914 Vol.

About

Volume

$821,209

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Created At

Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Will the US strike 7 countries in 2026?

16%

Will US or Israel strike Iran first?

58%

Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?

25%

Beware of external links.

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

1
$56,327 Vol.
4%

2
$270,739 Vol.
17%

3
$87,135 Vol.
14%

4
$120,707 Vol.
36%

5
$21,250 Vol.
12%

6
$12,957 Vol.
4%

7
$27,253 Vol.
2%

8
$20,424 Vol.
3%

9
$46,875 Vol.
3%

10
$8,993 Vol.
2%

11
$12,740 Vol.
2%

12
$41,781 Vol.
<1%

13
$8,755 Vol.
<1%

14
$34,052 Vol.
<1%

15+
$12,914 Vol.
1%

Market Context