Name: How many days will the federal government be shut down in 2025?
Start: 2025-09-16T18:06:54.838443Z
End: 2025-12-31T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve according to how many days the U.S. Office of Personnel Management announces that the U.S. federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse in appropriations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM.

Days are counted based on notices checked at 10:00 AM ET each day. If the Office of Personnel Management announces a partial shutdown, this will count; however, announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather will not qualify. 

If there are multiple government shutdowns during the relevant period, this market only applies to the first shutdown, as the market will resolve after the end of the first shutdown. Notices of emergency furloughs or impacted government operations count toward the shutdown days.  

If no shutdown occurs during the period, this market will resolve to "No shutdown".

The resolution source for this market will be the website of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).

No shutdown

1–3

10–29

 How many days will the federal government be shut down in 2025?

This market will resolve based on the seasonally adjusted number of federal employees, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) under the "All Employees, Federal" series (CES9091000001), displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001)

This market will resolve according to the decrease in the seasonally adjusted number of federal employees between the December 2024 report and the December 2025 report.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The difference will be calculated as the December 2024 value minus the December 2025 value.

The December 2024 figure will be based on the initial December 2024 BLS Employment Situation report scheduled for release on January 3, 2025, and the initial December 2025 figure will be based on the report scheduled for release on January 9, 2026. Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.

The resolution source will be the BLS Employment Situation data, specifically the series CES9091000001, available at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001 or the official BLS website.


Will Elon and DOGE cut 150-200k employees in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one cabinet-level Donald Trump appointee from his second term leaves their position by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Voluntary resignations, removals, retirements, or departures for any reason will count.

Announcements alone will not qualify toward this market's resolution. An individual must actually have left their cabinet-level position.

Temporary or acting officials will not count toward this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump cabinet member out in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

This market will resolve "Yes" if the bill listed is signed into law by the President of the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A bill will only qualify if it receives the President’s signature and becomes law through the normal legislative process. Vetoed bills, bills passed only by one chamber, or those that fail to reach the President’s desk, will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official information from Congress.gov or the White House; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if ambiguity arises.

Will the Guidance Clarity Act of 2025 (S.81) be signed into law by December 31 2025?

The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for December 9–10, 2025. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on December 10, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to both the number of dissenting votes recorded at the next Federal Reserve Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision, and the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level prior to the meeting.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 9–10, 2025, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

If the FOMC changes the upper bound of the target federal funds rate by an amount that is within 12.5 basis points of either “No change” or a “25bp cut,” the change will be rounded to the corresponding listed bracket (e.g., a 12.5-bp change is rounded to a 25-bp cut).

If any change is announced that is not listed, including any non-standard increment that cannot be rounded to a listed bracket under the rule above, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The level and change of the target federal funds rate are also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.

This market will resolve to the combined outcome corresponding to both the rate decision (No change / 25bp cut / Other) and the number of dissents (≤2 / >2) as expressed in the displayed strike options.

Will the December 2025 FOMC decision result in a 25bp cut with >2 dissents?

In Q4 2024, government expenditures were $7,106,807,000,000 (see https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND). 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if federal government current expenditures decrease by 5% or more between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Any 2025 quarterly report of $6,751,467,000,000 or less will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.

This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).


Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama serves any time in custody in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between July 22 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Obama in jail in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government sells any of its Bitcoin by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the US Government sell Bitcoin by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) ceases operations entirely, including the termination of all federal programs and activities managed by the agency, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If NASA is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, it will count as a "Yes" resolution.

If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump end NASA in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.  

Supreme Court vacancy in 2025?

This market will resolve based on federal government current expenditures as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).

This market will resolve to the amount federal government current expenditures decrease by between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. 

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The difference will be calculated as the Q4 2024 value minus the Q4 2025 value. 

The figures will be based on the initial Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 values as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank. Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used. 

The figures will be based on the Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 values as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank as soon as the data for Q4 2025 becomes available, regardless of whether later revisions are made.

This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).

Will Elon and DOGE cut less than $50b in federal spending in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2025 and the Fed's December 2025 meeting, currently scheduled for December 9-10. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate changes information following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fed rate hike in 2025?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.5% or lower before 2027?

In Q4 2024, government expenditures were $7,106,807,000,000 see (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND). 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if federal government current expenditures decrease by 10% or more between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Any 2025 quarterly report of $6,396,126,000,000 or less will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.

This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).

Will Elon cut the budget by at least 10% in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Jerome Powell federally charged in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for April 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Another Canada election called in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) ceases regular publication of any of the following reports: monthly Employment Situation reports (nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate), Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), Employment Cost Index, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), by December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

For purposes of this market, “ceases regular publication” means any of the following:

- The BLS officially announces it will no longer publish the report on its regular schedule.
- The BLS misses three consecutive scheduled releases of the report without providing the data within 30 days of each scheduled release date.
- The BLS announces that the report is discontinued, terminated, or permanently suspended.
- Legislative or executive action explicitly prohibits or defunds the publication of the report.

The following do NOT qualify as cessation:
- Temporary delays or postponements followed by subsequent publication (including delays caused by government shutdowns).
- Changes in methodology, seasonal adjustment, or calculation methods while continuing publication.
- Changes in publication frequency (e.g., monthly to quarterly) while maintaining regular releases.
- Format changes (e.g., digital-only, layout changes).
- Publishing preliminary or partial data with full data forthcoming.
- Changes to specific components within a report while the overall data series continues.
- Combining the report with other reports while still publishing the underlying data.
- BLS delays the jobs report due to a shutdown, then publishes it.
- BLS changes CPI methodology but continues publishing monthly CPI.
- BLS shifts employment data from monthly to quarterly.
- The Federal Reserve begins publishing employment data while BLS continues its own.
- BLS website outage delays posting, but data is released via other channels.
- BLS publishes preliminary data pending final adjustments.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. 

Will BLS stop reporting payroll data this year?

This market will resolve according to the second individual that ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Nicolás Maduro be the next leader out before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any executive order by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, that aims to eliminate or dismantle the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market's primary resolution source will be the Federal Register (https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trump executive order ending NASA in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Internal Revenue Department ceases operations entirely by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the IRS is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Internal Revenue Service it will count as a "Yes" resolution.

If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump abolishes IRS in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of Dogecoin in its reserves at any point between January 15, 2025, ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that the US government confiscating Dogecoin does not count as holding Dogecoin reserves.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

US national Dogecoin reserve in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US federal income tax is eliminated between January 21 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, "abolishing the federal income tax" means the elimination of federal income tax obligations for individuals in the US, not merely reductions, suspensions, or alterations to tax rates, brackets, or enforcement policies. The market will not consider executive orders, temporary measures, or proposals that do not become law.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, including announcements from Donald Trump and the IRS, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump abolishes the Federal Income Tax in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

How many days will the federal government be shut down in 2025?

No shutdown
$79,886 Vol.
No

1–3
$546,628 Vol.
No

4-9
$223,725 Vol.
No

10–29
$433,497 Vol.
No

30+
$996,813 Vol.
Yes

Market Context

How many days will the federal government be shut down in 2025?

Rules

How many days will the federal government be shut down in 2025?

Market Context

How many days will the federal government be shut down in 2025?

About

Related

How many days will the federal government be shut down in 2025?

No shutdown$79,886 Vol.Nocircle xmark

1–3$546,628 Vol.Nocircle xmark

4-9$223,725 Vol.Nocircle xmark

10–29$433,497 Vol.Nocircle xmark

30+$996,813 Vol.Yescircle check

Market Context

How many days will the federal government be shut down in 2025?

Rules

How many days will the federal government be shut down in 2025?

Market Context

How many days will the federal government be shut down in 2025?

About

Related

No shutdown
$79,886 Vol.
No

1–3
$546,628 Vol.
No

4-9
$223,725 Vol.
No

10–29
$433,497 Vol.
No

30+
$996,813 Vol.
Yes