Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 25°C or below in Taipei on March 30, driven by official observations from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration (CWA) at the Taipei station, which recorded a daytime high within this range under mostly clear skies. This aligns precisely with CWA's pre-event forecast of 20–25°C peaks, reflecting seasonal late-March norms where average highs hover around 21–22°C amid mild northeasterly flows and transitioning subtropical conditions. Historical March data at Taipei Songshan Airport supports such moderated warmth, with rare exceedances absent strong high-pressure ridging. Realistic challenges would require a post-validation data revision by CWA—highly improbable given standardized measurement protocols—or evidence of station-specific anomalies, though none have surfaced.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Taipei on March 30?
Highest temperature in Taipei on March 30?
25°C or below 100.0%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$146,780 Vol.
$146,780 Vol.
Mar 30, 2026
25°C or below
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
25°C or below 100.0%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$146,780 Vol.
$146,780 Vol.
Mar 30, 2026
25°C or below
$74,158 Vol.
100%
26°C
$17,808 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$22,327 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$6,451 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$4,814 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$4,185 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$3,628 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$3,116 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$2,765 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$3,638 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$3,891 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 25°C or below in Taipei on March 30, driven by official observations from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration (CWA) at the Taipei station, which recorded a daytime high within this range under mostly clear skies. This aligns precisely with CWA's pre-event forecast of 20–25°C peaks, reflecting seasonal late-March norms where average highs hover around 21–22°C amid mild northeasterly flows and transitioning subtropical conditions. Historical March data at Taipei Songshan Airport supports such moderated warmth, with rare exceedances absent strong high-pressure ridging. Realistic challenges would require a post-validation data revision by CWA—highly improbable given standardized measurement protocols—or evidence of station-specific anomalies, though none have surfaced.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 2:18 PM ET
Volume
$146,780End Date
Mar 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 2:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 25°C or below in Taipei on March 30, driven by official observations from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration (CWA) at the Taipei station, which recorded a daytime high within this range under mostly clear skies. This aligns precisely with CWA's pre-event forecast of 20–25°C peaks, reflecting seasonal late-March norms where average highs hover around 21–22°C amid mild northeasterly flows and transitioning subtropical conditions. Historical March data at Taipei Songshan Airport supports such moderated warmth, with rare exceedances absent strong high-pressure ridging. Realistic challenges would require a post-validation data revision by CWA—highly improbable given standardized measurement protocols—or evidence of station-specific anomalies, though none have surfaced.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$146,780End Date
Mar 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 2:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 25°C or below in Taipei on March 30, driven by official observations from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration (CWA) at the Taipei station, which recorded a daytime high within this range under mostly clear skies. This aligns precisely with CWA's pre-event forecast of 20–25°C peaks, reflecting seasonal late-March norms where average highs hover around 21–22°C amid mild northeasterly flows and transitioning subtropical conditions. Historical March data at Taipei Songshan Airport supports such moderated warmth, with rare exceedances absent strong high-pressure ridging. Realistic challenges would require a post-validation data revision by CWA—highly improbable given standardized measurement protocols—or evidence of station-specific anomalies, though none have surfaced.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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