Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a 16°C high temperature in Chengdu on March 30, backed by official observational data from China Meteorological Administration stations showing peak readings at 16°C amid persistent overcast skies and light rain, which sharply reduced solar insolation and compressed the diurnal temperature range. Early morning temperatures hovered near 14°C, with minimal afternoon warming despite forecasts of 17–18°C from Hong Kong Observatory bulletins issued March 29. This aligns with March 2026's cooler-than-average trend (averaging 2–3°C below norms). Realistic challenges would require a final data revision uncovering a higher peripheral-station reading, though uniform cloudy conditions make this improbable; expect resolution confirmation via CMA's end-of-day bulletin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on March 30?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on March 30?
16°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$53,940 Vol.
$53,940 Vol.
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
Yes
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
16°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$53,940 Vol.
$53,940 Vol.
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
Yes
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 2:47 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a 16°C high temperature in Chengdu on March 30, backed by official observational data from China Meteorological Administration stations showing peak readings at 16°C amid persistent overcast skies and light rain, which sharply reduced solar insolation and compressed the diurnal temperature range. Early morning temperatures hovered near 14°C, with minimal afternoon warming despite forecasts of 17–18°C from Hong Kong Observatory bulletins issued March 29. This aligns with March 2026's cooler-than-average trend (averaging 2–3°C below norms). Realistic challenges would require a final data revision uncovering a higher peripheral-station reading, though uniform cloudy conditions make this improbable; expect resolution confirmation via CMA's end-of-day bulletin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions