Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged around 22°C (33% implied probability) for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 2, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration models, which project daytime highs near 22°C under light rain and considerable cloudiness limiting solar heating. AccuWeather and local weather services align with peaks of 71°F (22°C), while BBC guidance leans slightly cooler at 70°F (21°C), explaining the tight race with 21°C (22.5%) and 23°C (21%). Key variables include cloud cover extent, shower timing, and light southerly winds; prolonged overcast skies favor 21°C or below, while partial clearing could push toward 23–24°C. Early April climatology averages highs of 20–22°C at Shuangliu Airport station, with resolution hinging on official observations amid typical spring variability. New model runs expected overnight may refine odds before measurements finalize.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on April 2?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 2?
22°C 33%
21°C 26%
23°C 22%
24°C 13%
$18,371 Vol.
$18,371 Vol.
Apr 2, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
3%
20°C
7%
21°C
26%
22°C
33%
23°C
22%
24°C
13%
25°C
2%
26°C
1%
27°C or higher
<1%
22°C 33%
21°C 26%
23°C 22%
24°C 13%
$18,371 Vol.
$18,371 Vol.
Apr 2, 2026
17°C or below
$2,776 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$1,686 Vol.
1%
19°C
$1,911 Vol.
3%
20°C
$1,297 Vol.
7%
21°C
$1,230 Vol.
26%
22°C
$1,320 Vol.
33%
23°C
$1,519 Vol.
22%
24°C
$1,885 Vol.
13%
25°C
$1,619 Vol.
2%
26°C
$1,175 Vol.
1%
27°C or higher
$1,952 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged around 22°C (33% implied probability) for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 2, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration models, which project daytime highs near 22°C under light rain and considerable cloudiness limiting solar heating. AccuWeather and local weather services align with peaks of 71°F (22°C), while BBC guidance leans slightly cooler at 70°F (21°C), explaining the tight race with 21°C (22.5%) and 23°C (21%). Key variables include cloud cover extent, shower timing, and light southerly winds; prolonged overcast skies favor 21°C or below, while partial clearing could push toward 23–24°C. Early April climatology averages highs of 20–22°C at Shuangliu Airport station, with resolution hinging on official observations amid typical spring variability. New model runs expected overnight may refine odds before measurements finalize.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Volume
$18,371End Date
Apr 2, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 6:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged around 22°C (33% implied probability) for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 2, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration models, which project daytime highs near 22°C under light rain and considerable cloudiness limiting solar heating. AccuWeather and local weather services align with peaks of 71°F (22°C), while BBC guidance leans slightly cooler at 70°F (21°C), explaining the tight race with 21°C (22.5%) and 23°C (21%). Key variables include cloud cover extent, shower timing, and light southerly winds; prolonged overcast skies favor 21°C or below, while partial clearing could push toward 23–24°C. Early April climatology averages highs of 20–22°C at Shuangliu Airport station, with resolution hinging on official observations amid typical spring variability. New model runs expected overnight may refine odds before measurements finalize.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$18,371End Date
Apr 2, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 6:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged around 22°C (33% implied probability) for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 2, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration models, which project daytime highs near 22°C under light rain and considerable cloudiness limiting solar heating. AccuWeather and local weather services align with peaks of 71°F (22°C), while BBC guidance leans slightly cooler at 70°F (21°C), explaining the tight race with 21°C (22.5%) and 23°C (21%). Key variables include cloud cover extent, shower timing, and light southerly winds; prolonged overcast skies favor 21°C or below, while partial clearing could push toward 23–24°C. Early April climatology averages highs of 20–22°C at Shuangliu Airport station, with resolution hinging on official observations amid typical spring variability. New model runs expected overnight may refine odds before measurements finalize.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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