Traders' overwhelming consensus (94%) on the 80–85 per 100,000 range for cumulative influenza hospitalization rates through Week 12 reflects the latest CDC FluSurv-NET data from the Week 11 FluView report (ending March 21, 2026), showing a cumulative rate of 81.6 per 100,000—the third highest since 2010–2011—driven by a severe season with an estimated 360,000 total hospitalizations to date. Declining trends, including a Week 11 weekly rate of 1.1 per 100,000 (adjusted estimate 1.4–1.9) and decreasing influenza A(H3N2) activity across regions, plus FluSight ensemble forecasts predicting fewer new admissions nationally, support minimal addition of 1–2 points for Week 12 (ending March 28). The Week 12 FluView report, due early April, will finalize the rate amid typical reporting delays; an unexpected late-season surge or upward revisions from underreported cases could push it toward 85–90, though low weekly admissions make this unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedFlu Hospitalization Rate Week 12, 2026?
Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 12, 2026?
80–85 94%
85–90 2.6%
90–95 <1%
<75 <1%
$13,761 Vol.
$13,761 Vol.
Apr 3, 2026
<75
<1%
75–80
<1%
80–85
94%
85–90
3%
90–95
1%
95+
<1%
80–85 94%
85–90 2.6%
90–95 <1%
<75 <1%
$13,761 Vol.
$13,761 Vol.
Apr 3, 2026
<75
$520 Vol.
<1%
75–80
$609 Vol.
<1%
80–85
$7,546 Vol.
94%
85–90
$598 Vol.
3%
90–95
$3,873 Vol.
1%
95+
$615 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.Traders' overwhelming consensus (94%) on the 80–85 per 100,000 range for cumulative influenza hospitalization rates through Week 12 reflects the latest CDC FluSurv-NET data from the Week 11 FluView report (ending March 21, 2026), showing a cumulative rate of 81.6 per 100,000—the third highest since 2010–2011—driven by a severe season with an estimated 360,000 total hospitalizations to date. Declining trends, including a Week 11 weekly rate of 1.1 per 100,000 (adjusted estimate 1.4–1.9) and decreasing influenza A(H3N2) activity across regions, plus FluSight ensemble forecasts predicting fewer new admissions nationally, support minimal addition of 1–2 points for Week 12 (ending March 28). The Week 12 FluView report, due early April, will finalize the rate amid typical reporting delays; an unexpected late-season surge or upward revisions from underreported cases could push it toward 85–90, though low weekly admissions make this unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 11:13 AM ET
Volume
$13,761End Date
Apr 3, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 11:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.Traders' overwhelming consensus (94%) on the 80–85 per 100,000 range for cumulative influenza hospitalization rates through Week 12 reflects the latest CDC FluSurv-NET data from the Week 11 FluView report (ending March 21, 2026), showing a cumulative rate of 81.6 per 100,000—the third highest since 2010–2011—driven by a severe season with an estimated 360,000 total hospitalizations to date. Declining trends, including a Week 11 weekly rate of 1.1 per 100,000 (adjusted estimate 1.4–1.9) and decreasing influenza A(H3N2) activity across regions, plus FluSight ensemble forecasts predicting fewer new admissions nationally, support minimal addition of 1–2 points for Week 12 (ending March 28). The Week 12 FluView report, due early April, will finalize the rate amid typical reporting delays; an unexpected late-season surge or upward revisions from underreported cases could push it toward 85–90, though low weekly admissions make this unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Volume
$13,761End Date
Apr 3, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 11:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders' overwhelming consensus (94%) on the 80–85 per 100,000 range for cumulative influenza hospitalization rates through Week 12 reflects the latest CDC FluSurv-NET data from the Week 11 FluView report (ending March 21, 2026), showing a cumulative rate of 81.6 per 100,000—the third highest since 2010–2011—driven by a severe season with an estimated 360,000 total hospitalizations to date. Declining trends, including a Week 11 weekly rate of 1.1 per 100,000 (adjusted estimate 1.4–1.9) and decreasing influenza A(H3N2) activity across regions, plus FluSight ensemble forecasts predicting fewer new admissions nationally, support minimal addition of 1–2 points for Week 12 (ending March 28). The Week 12 FluView report, due early April, will finalize the rate amid typical reporting delays; an unexpected late-season surge or upward revisions from underreported cases could push it toward 85–90, though low weekly admissions make this unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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