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Bank of Russia decision in March?

Market icon

Bank of Russia decision in March?

Decrease 100.0%

No Change <1%

Increase <1%

Polymarket

$0.00 Vol.

Decrease 100.0%

No Change <1%

Increase <1%

Polymarket

$0.00 Vol.

Decrease

$0 Vol.

Yes

No Change

$0 Vol.

No

Increase

$0 Vol.

No

This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s March meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its March 20, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13 This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their March 20, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders have locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a Bank of Russia key rate decrease at the March meeting, driven primarily by decelerating inflation—CPI eased to 8.4% year-over-year in September from a 9.6% peak—and softening economic growth amid sanctions pressure and ruble stabilization around 97-100/USD. Official data from Rosstat and CBR statements highlight receding inflationary pressures, enabling the first cuts in the easing cycle after recent hikes to 21%. This consensus reflects real-money positioning on pro-easing rhetoric from Governor Nabiullina. Challenges could arise from unexpected ruble weakness, renewed war-spending inflation, or hotter-than-expected December CPI, potentially forcing a hold or hike. Watch the December 20 FOMC counterpart for global yield cues.

This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s March meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its March 20, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13

This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their March 20, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$0
End Date
Mar 20, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 5:42 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s March meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its March 20, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13 This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their March 20, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s March meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its March 20, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13 This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their March 20, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders have locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a Bank of Russia key rate decrease at the March meeting, driven primarily by decelerating inflation—CPI eased to 8.4% year-over-year in September from a 9.6% peak—and softening economic growth amid sanctions pressure and ruble stabilization around 97-100/USD. Official data from Rosstat and CBR statements highlight receding inflationary pressures, enabling the first cuts in the easing cycle after recent hikes to 21%. This consensus reflects real-money positioning on pro-easing rhetoric from Governor Nabiullina. Challenges could arise from unexpected ruble weakness, renewed war-spending inflation, or hotter-than-expected December CPI, potentially forcing a hold or hike. Watch the December 20 FOMC counterpart for global yield cues.

This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s March meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its March 20, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13

This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their March 20, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$0
End Date
Mar 20, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 5:42 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s March meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its March 20, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13 This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their March 20, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Bank of Russia decision in March?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Decrease" at 100%, followed by "No Change" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Bank of Russia decision in March?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Dec 29, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Bank of Russia decision in March?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Bank of Russia decision in March?" is "Decrease" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "No Change" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Bank of Russia decision in March?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.