Polymarket traders have locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a Bank of Russia key rate decrease at the March meeting, driven primarily by decelerating inflation—CPI eased to 8.4% year-over-year in September from a 9.6% peak—and softening economic growth amid sanctions pressure and ruble stabilization around 97-100/USD. Official data from Rosstat and CBR statements highlight receding inflationary pressures, enabling the first cuts in the easing cycle after recent hikes to 21%. This consensus reflects real-money positioning on pro-easing rhetoric from Governor Nabiullina. Challenges could arise from unexpected ruble weakness, renewed war-spending inflation, or hotter-than-expected December CPI, potentially forcing a hold or hike. Watch the December 20 FOMC counterpart for global yield cues.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedDecrease 100.0%
No Change <1%
Increase <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
Decrease
Yes
No Change
No
Increase
No
Decrease 100.0%
No Change <1%
Increase <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
Decrease
Yes
No Change
No
Increase
No
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its March 20, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their March 20, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Dec 29, 2025, 5:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its March 20, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their March 20, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Polymarket traders have locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a Bank of Russia key rate decrease at the March meeting, driven primarily by decelerating inflation—CPI eased to 8.4% year-over-year in September from a 9.6% peak—and softening economic growth amid sanctions pressure and ruble stabilization around 97-100/USD. Official data from Rosstat and CBR statements highlight receding inflationary pressures, enabling the first cuts in the easing cycle after recent hikes to 21%. This consensus reflects real-money positioning on pro-easing rhetoric from Governor Nabiullina. Challenges could arise from unexpected ruble weakness, renewed war-spending inflation, or hotter-than-expected December CPI, potentially forcing a hold or hike. Watch the December 20 FOMC counterpart for global yield cues.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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