Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors no Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026, at 97% implied probability, driven by recent reports from The Information and Bloomberg detailing preliminary discussions with banks like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan for a potential Q4 debut—October at the earliest—aiming to raise over $60 billion at a roughly $380 billion valuation. This timeline aligns with Anthropic's aggressive scaling of Claude AI models, recent board addition of IPO veteran Chris Liddell, and massive funding like a $30 billion round earlier this year, but lacks any S-1 filing or official commitment for H1. Realistic challenges include accelerated regulatory approvals, surprise competitive pressures from OpenAI, or favorable market windows prompting an earlier listing, though such shifts remain low-probability given standard IPO prep timelines of 6–12 months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNo IPO by June 30, 2026 97.0%
600B+ 1.5%
400–600B <1%
300–400B <1%
$926,805 Vol.
$926,805 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<100B
<1%
100–200B
<1%
200–300B
<1%
300–400B
1%
400–600B
1%
600B+
2%
No IPO by June 30, 2026
97%
No IPO by June 30, 2026 97.0%
600B+ 1.5%
400–600B <1%
300–400B <1%
$926,805 Vol.
$926,805 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<100B
$191,339 Vol.
<1%
100–200B
$64,473 Vol.
<1%
200–300B
$121,027 Vol.
<1%
300–400B
$62,135 Vol.
1%
400–600B
$93,240 Vol.
1%
600B+
$232,566 Vol.
2%
No IPO by June 30, 2026
$162,026 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors no Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026, at 97% implied probability, driven by recent reports from The Information and Bloomberg detailing preliminary discussions with banks like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan for a potential Q4 debut—October at the earliest—aiming to raise over $60 billion at a roughly $380 billion valuation. This timeline aligns with Anthropic's aggressive scaling of Claude AI models, recent board addition of IPO veteran Chris Liddell, and massive funding like a $30 billion round earlier this year, but lacks any S-1 filing or official commitment for H1. Realistic challenges include accelerated regulatory approvals, surprise competitive pressures from OpenAI, or favorable market windows prompting an earlier listing, though such shifts remain low-probability given standard IPO prep timelines of 6–12 months.
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Volume
$926,805End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors no Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026, at 97% implied probability, driven by recent reports from The Information and Bloomberg detailing preliminary discussions with banks like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan for a potential Q4 debut—October at the earliest—aiming to raise over $60 billion at a roughly $380 billion valuation. This timeline aligns with Anthropic's aggressive scaling of Claude AI models, recent board addition of IPO veteran Chris Liddell, and massive funding like a $30 billion round earlier this year, but lacks any S-1 filing or official commitment for H1. Realistic challenges include accelerated regulatory approvals, surprise competitive pressures from OpenAI, or favorable market windows prompting an earlier listing, though such shifts remain low-probability given standard IPO prep timelines of 6–12 months.
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$926,805End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors no Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026, at 97% implied probability, driven by recent reports from The Information and Bloomberg detailing preliminary discussions with banks like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan for a potential Q4 debut—October at the earliest—aiming to raise over $60 billion at a roughly $380 billion valuation. This timeline aligns with Anthropic's aggressive scaling of Claude AI models, recent board addition of IPO veteran Chris Liddell, and massive funding like a $30 billion round earlier this year, but lacks any S-1 filing or official commitment for H1. Realistic challenges include accelerated regulatory approvals, surprise competitive pressures from OpenAI, or favorable market windows prompting an earlier listing, though such shifts remain low-probability given standard IPO prep timelines of 6–12 months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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