Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?

Name: Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?
Start: 2026-02-26T22:45:20.298Z
End: 2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z

Climate & Science·Science

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?

May 31

$47,295 Vol.

May 31, 2026

March 31

$31,248 Vol.

27%

April 30

$13,741 Vol.

75%

May 31

$2,306 Vol.

93%

$47,295 Vol.

March 31

$31,248 Vol.

27%

April 30

$13,741 Vol.

75%

May 31

$2,306 Vol.

93%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Trader consensus implies about 48% odds of another magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake worldwide before December 31, 2024, following the M7.6 Noto Peninsula event in Japan on January 1 and subsequent M7.4 in the Philippines on July 19, per USGS data. This pricing reflects the historical average of 15-20 such quakes annually—roughly 1-1.5 per month—with roughly four months remaining, though Poisson-distributed probabilities suggest higher baseline odds around 70-80% for at least one more. No short-term forecasting is possible, as USGS emphasizes earthquakes occur without reliable precursors; sentiment tracks real-time global seismicity, with next USGS significant quake summary due weekly potentially shifting views if activity spikes in high-risk zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 24, 2026, 3:20 AM UTC

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

12%

Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?

33%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "May 31" at 93%, followed by "April 30" at 75%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 93¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 93% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?" has generated $47.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?" is "May 31" at 93%, meaning the market assigns a 93% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "April 30" at 75%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $47.3K traded on “Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 93¢ for "May 31" in the "Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 93% chance that "May 31" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 93¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 7¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around May 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?" market has an active community of 74 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?

Rules

Market Context

Market Context

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Comments (74)

Top Holders

Positions

Activity

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the "Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?" prediction market?

How much trading activity has "Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?" generated on Polymarket?

How do I trade on "Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?"?

What are the current odds for "Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?"?

How will "Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?" be resolved?

Can I follow "Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?" without placing a trade?

Why are Polymarket's odds for "Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?" considered reliable?

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What does a price of 93¢ for "May 31" mean?

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