Market icon
Política·Elon Musk

¿Elon Musk anunciará la candidatura presidencial antes de 2027?

Market icon
Política·Elon Musk

¿Elon Musk anunciará la candidatura presidencial antes de 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

Sí

6% chance
Polymarket
NEW

Sí

6% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Elon Musk will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Elon Musk (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 94% implied probability for Elon Musk announcing a presidential run before 2027, primarily due to the U.S. Constitution's Article II requirement that presidents be natural-born citizens—Musk, a naturalized citizen born in South Africa, remains constitutionally ineligible. No recent official statements, campaign filings, or public hints from Musk signal any intent to pursue the presidency; instead, he has focused on advising the Trump administration, including joining a March 28, 2026, call with President Trump and Indian Prime Minister Modi on the Iran crisis, and supporting Republican efforts ahead of the 2026 midterms via voter ID and election integrity reposts. Absent a radical shift like a constitutional amendment—politically improbable—or unexpected personal announcement, barriers persist.

Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 94% implied probability for Elon Musk announcing a presidential run before 2027, primarily due to the U.S. Constitution's Article II requirement that presidents be natural-born citizens—Musk, a naturalized citizen born in South Africa, remains constitutionally ineligible. No recent official statements, campaign filings, or public hints from Musk signal any intent to pursue the presidency; instead, he has focused on advising the Trump administration, including joining a March 28, 2026, call with President Trump and Indian Prime Minister Modi on the Iran crisis, and supporting Republican efforts ahead of the 2026 midterms via voter ID and election integrity reposts. Absent a radical shift like a constitutional amendment—politically improbable—or unexpected personal announcement, barriers persist.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Elon Musk will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Elon Musk (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 94% implied probability for Elon Musk announcing a presidential run before 2027, primarily due to the U.S. Constitution's Article II requirement that presidents be natural-born citizens—Musk, a naturalized citizen born in South Africa, remains constitutionally ineligible. No recent official statements, campaign filings, or public hints from Musk signal any intent to pursue the presidency; instead, he has focused on advising the Trump administration, including joining a March 28, 2026, call with President Trump and Indian Prime Minister Modi on the Iran crisis, and supporting Republican efforts ahead of the 2026 midterms via voter ID and election integrity reposts. Absent a radical shift like a constitutional amendment—politically improbable—or unexpected personal announcement, barriers persist.

Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 94% implied probability for Elon Musk announcing a presidential run before 2027, primarily due to the U.S. Constitution's Article II requirement that presidents be natural-born citizens—Musk, a naturalized citizen born in South Africa, remains constitutionally ineligible. No recent official statements, campaign filings, or public hints from Musk signal any intent to pursue the presidency; instead, he has focused on advising the Trump administration, including joining a March 28, 2026, call with President Trump and Indian Prime Minister Modi on the Iran crisis, and supporting Republican efforts ahead of the 2026 midterms via voter ID and election integrity reposts. Absent a radical shift like a constitutional amendment—politically improbable—or unexpected personal announcement, barriers persist.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Elon Musk anunciará la candidatura presidencial antes de 2027?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Anunciará Elon Musk su candidatura presidencial antes de 2027?" con 6%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 6¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 6% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"¿Elon Musk anunciará la candidatura presidencial antes de 2027?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Nov 5, 2025. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "¿Elon Musk anunciará la candidatura presidencial antes de 2027?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

Este es un mercado muy abierto. El líder actual para "¿Elon Musk anunciará la candidatura presidencial antes de 2027?" es "¿Anunciará Elon Musk su candidatura presidencial antes de 2027?" con solo 6%. Sin ningún resultado con una mayoría clara, los operadores lo ven como altamente incierto, lo que puede presentar oportunidades de trading únicas. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real, así que guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Elon Musk anunciará la candidatura presidencial antes de 2027?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.