Ongoing TSA staffing shortages amid a partial government shutdown have driven average daily US flight cancellations to 300-700 in late March, well above historical norms of around 340, compounded by spring break travel demand and recovery from mid-month storms that cancelled thousands. With no severe weather forecast for March 30 across major hubs like Chicago O'Hare, Atlanta, and New York, trader consensus slightly favors under 500 cancellations at 51% implied probability for "No." Escalating TSA callouts or unexpected thunderstorms could push totals over the threshold, while clear skies and stabilized operations would reinforce the under outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Más de 500 vuelos de EE. UU. cancelados el 30 de marzo?
¿Más de 500 vuelos de EE. UU. cancelados el 30 de marzo?
Sí
NEW
NEW
Mar 30, 2026
Sí
NEW
NEW
Mar 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware is greater than 500 when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".Ongoing TSA staffing shortages amid a partial government shutdown have driven average daily US flight cancellations to 300-700 in late March, well above historical norms of around 340, compounded by spring break travel demand and recovery from mid-month storms that cancelled thousands. With no severe weather forecast for March 30 across major hubs like Chicago O'Hare, Atlanta, and New York, trader consensus slightly favors under 500 cancellations at 51% implied probability for "No." Escalating TSA callouts or unexpected thunderstorms could push totals over the threshold, while clear skies and stabilized operations would reinforce the under outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware is greater than 500 when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".
Mercado abierto: Mar 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
Mar 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterdayResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware is greater than 500 when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".Ongoing TSA staffing shortages amid a partial government shutdown have driven average daily US flight cancellations to 300-700 in late March, well above historical norms of around 340, compounded by spring break travel demand and recovery from mid-month storms that cancelled thousands. With no severe weather forecast for March 30 across major hubs like Chicago O'Hare, Atlanta, and New York, trader consensus slightly favors under 500 cancellations at 51% implied probability for "No." Escalating TSA callouts or unexpected thunderstorms could push totals over the threshold, while clear skies and stabilized operations would reinforce the under outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware is greater than 500 when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
Mar 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterdayResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing TSA staffing shortages amid a partial government shutdown have driven average daily US flight cancellations to 300-700 in late March, well above historical norms of around 340, compounded by spring break travel demand and recovery from mid-month storms that cancelled thousands. With no severe weather forecast for March 30 across major hubs like Chicago O'Hare, Atlanta, and New York, trader consensus slightly favors under 500 cancellations at 51% implied probability for "No." Escalating TSA callouts or unexpected thunderstorms could push totals over the threshold, while clear skies and stabilized operations would reinforce the under outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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