Trader consensus favors Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer at 58.5% implied probability to be the next Trump Cabinet departure, driven by an escalating Department of Labor inspector general probe into alleged misconduct, travel fraud, and a hostile workplace, prompting top aides' resignations on March 3 and a bodyguard's exit on March 20 amid affair claims. Her husband was barred from headquarters in February over assault allegations by staff. Tulsi Gabbard, Director of National Intelligence, follows at 10.8% after deputy Joe Kent's March 17 resignation from the National Counterterrorism Center, fueling speculation amid Iran policy tensions. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth trails at 9.7% on lingering leadership controversies, while "None before 2027" languishes at 5.9% as scandals mount without formal Senate oversight hearings scheduled.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoLori Chavez-DeRemer 59%
Tulsi Gabbard 10.8%
Pete Hegseth 9.7%
Nadie antes de 2027 6.2%
$1,495,968 Vol.
$1,495,968 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
59%
Tulsi Gabbard
11%
Pete Hegseth
10%
Nadie antes de 2027
6%
Lee Zeldin
3%
Mike Waltz
3%
Scott Bessent
2%
Brooke Rollins
2%
J.D. Vance
1%
Sean Duffy
1%
Pam Bondi
1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
1%
Howard Lutnick
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
Scott Turner
1%
Susie Wiles
1%
John Ratcliffe
1%
Marco Rubio
1%
Chris Wright
1%
Russell T. Vought
1%
Jamieson Greer
<1%
Kelly Loeffler
<1%
Doug Collins
<1%
Doug Burgum
<1%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer 59%
Tulsi Gabbard 10.8%
Pete Hegseth 9.7%
Nadie antes de 2027 6.2%
$1,495,968 Vol.
$1,495,968 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
$73,219 Vol.
59%
Tulsi Gabbard
$693,864 Vol.
11%
Pete Hegseth
$342,189 Vol.
10%
Nadie antes de 2027
$129,449 Vol.
6%
Lee Zeldin
$40,876 Vol.
3%
Mike Waltz
$4,298 Vol.
3%
Scott Bessent
$4,568 Vol.
2%
Brooke Rollins
$6,623 Vol.
2%
J.D. Vance
$7,171 Vol.
1%
Sean Duffy
$63,962 Vol.
1%
Pam Bondi
$3,967 Vol.
1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$3,560 Vol.
1%
Howard Lutnick
$26,010 Vol.
1%
Linda McMahon
$9,797 Vol.
1%
Scott Turner
$5,472 Vol.
1%
Susie Wiles
$4,687 Vol.
1%
John Ratcliffe
$3,998 Vol.
1%
Marco Rubio
$50,374 Vol.
1%
Chris Wright
$3,792 Vol.
1%
Russell T. Vought
$3,891 Vol.
1%
Jamieson Greer
$4,507 Vol.
<1%
Kelly Loeffler
$3,705 Vol.
<1%
Doug Collins
$3,258 Vol.
<1%
Doug Burgum
$5,787 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus favors Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer at 58.5% implied probability to be the next Trump Cabinet departure, driven by an escalating Department of Labor inspector general probe into alleged misconduct, travel fraud, and a hostile workplace, prompting top aides' resignations on March 3 and a bodyguard's exit on March 20 amid affair claims. Her husband was barred from headquarters in February over assault allegations by staff. Tulsi Gabbard, Director of National Intelligence, follows at 10.8% after deputy Joe Kent's March 17 resignation from the National Counterterrorism Center, fueling speculation amid Iran policy tensions. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth trails at 9.7% on lingering leadership controversies, while "None before 2027" languishes at 5.9% as scandals mount without formal Senate oversight hearings scheduled.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ET
Volumen
$1,495,968Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus favors Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer at 58.5% implied probability to be the next Trump Cabinet departure, driven by an escalating Department of Labor inspector general probe into alleged misconduct, travel fraud, and a hostile workplace, prompting top aides' resignations on March 3 and a bodyguard's exit on March 20 amid affair claims. Her husband was barred from headquarters in February over assault allegations by staff. Tulsi Gabbard, Director of National Intelligence, follows at 10.8% after deputy Joe Kent's March 17 resignation from the National Counterterrorism Center, fueling speculation amid Iran policy tensions. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth trails at 9.7% on lingering leadership controversies, while "None before 2027" languishes at 5.9% as scandals mount without formal Senate oversight hearings scheduled.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volumen
$1,495,968Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer at 58.5% implied probability to be the next Trump Cabinet departure, driven by an escalating Department of Labor inspector general probe into alleged misconduct, travel fraud, and a hostile workplace, prompting top aides' resignations on March 3 and a bodyguard's exit on March 20 amid affair claims. Her husband was barred from headquarters in February over assault allegations by staff. Tulsi Gabbard, Director of National Intelligence, follows at 10.8% after deputy Joe Kent's March 17 resignation from the National Counterterrorism Center, fueling speculation amid Iran policy tensions. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth trails at 9.7% on lingering leadership controversies, while "None before 2027" languishes at 5.9% as scandals mount without formal Senate oversight hearings scheduled.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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