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Elecciones·Trump

Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-12

Market icon
Elecciones·Trump

Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-12

Micah Lasher 42%

Alex Bores 29%

Jack Schlossberg 17%

Erik Bottcher 6.5%

Polymarket

$103,683 Vol.

Micah Lasher 42%

Alex Bores 29%

Jack Schlossberg 17%

Erik Bottcher 6.5%

Polymarket

$103,683 Vol.

Micah Lasher

$4,464 Vol.

42%

Alex Bores

$2,750 Vol.

29%

Jack Schlossberg

$5,089 Vol.

17%

Erik Bottcher

$1,690 Vol.

7%

George Conway

$1,409 Vol.

4%

Lina Khan

$1,636 Vol.

1%

Julie Menin

$22,807 Vol.

1%

Liz Krueger

$36,794 Vol.

1%

Cameron Kasky

$2,298 Vol.

1%

Gale Brewer

$1,244 Vol.

<1%

Andrew Cuomo

$1,559 Vol.

<1%

Brad Hoylman-Sigal

$4,664 Vol.

<1%

Keith Powers

$2,349 Vol.

<1%

Carolyn Maloney

$1,755 Vol.

<1%

Brad Lander

$1,216 Vol.

<1%

Chelsea Clinton

$6,916 Vol.

<1%

Liam Elkind

$1,454 Vol.

<1%

Scott Stringer

$1,964 Vol.

<1%

Cynthia Nixon

$1,626 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In the open race for New York's 12th Congressional District Democratic primary following Rep. Jerry Nadler's September 2025 retirement announcement, trader consensus favors Assemblymember Micah Lasher at 42% implied probability, driven by his March 12 endorsement from former Mayor Michael Bloomberg—backed by a super PAC poised to spend millions—and a public boost from Nadler himself on March 14, positioning Lasher as the establishment successor with strong fundraising. Assemblymember Alex Bores holds 28.5% amid a fresh endorsement from District Council 37 delegates two days ago and leads some early March polls alongside Jack Schlossberg, whose 17% reflects Kennedy family name recognition and social media buzz despite limited institutional support. Recent surveys show a tight contest among the top three, with undecided voters key ahead of the June primary.

In the open race for New York's 12th Congressional District Democratic primary following Rep. Jerry Nadler's September 2025 retirement announcement, trader consensus favors Assemblymember Micah Lasher at 42% implied probability, driven by his March 12 endorsement from former Mayor Michael Bloomberg—backed by a super PAC poised to spend millions—and a public boost from Nadler himself on March 14, positioning Lasher as the establishment successor with strong fundraising. Assemblymember Alex Bores holds 28.5% amid a fresh endorsement from District Council 37 delegates two days ago and leads some early March polls alongside Jack Schlossberg, whose 17% reflects Kennedy family name recognition and social media buzz despite limited institutional support. Recent surveys show a tight contest among the top three, with undecided voters key ahead of the June primary.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In the open race for New York's 12th Congressional District Democratic primary following Rep. Jerry Nadler's September 2025 retirement announcement, trader consensus favors Assemblymember Micah Lasher at 42% implied probability, driven by his March 12 endorsement from former Mayor Michael Bloomberg—backed by a super PAC poised to spend millions—and a public boost from Nadler himself on March 14, positioning Lasher as the establishment successor with strong fundraising. Assemblymember Alex Bores holds 28.5% amid a fresh endorsement from District Council 37 delegates two days ago and leads some early March polls alongside Jack Schlossberg, whose 17% reflects Kennedy family name recognition and social media buzz despite limited institutional support. Recent surveys show a tight contest among the top three, with undecided voters key ahead of the June primary.

In the open race for New York's 12th Congressional District Democratic primary following Rep. Jerry Nadler's September 2025 retirement announcement, trader consensus favors Assemblymember Micah Lasher at 42% implied probability, driven by his March 12 endorsement from former Mayor Michael Bloomberg—backed by a super PAC poised to spend millions—and a public boost from Nadler himself on March 14, positioning Lasher as the establishment successor with strong fundraising. Assemblymember Alex Bores holds 28.5% amid a fresh endorsement from District Council 37 delegates two days ago and leads some early March polls alongside Jack Schlossberg, whose 17% reflects Kennedy family name recognition and social media buzz despite limited institutional support. Recent surveys show a tight contest among the top three, with undecided voters key ahead of the June primary.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-12" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 19 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Micah Lasher" con 42%, seguido de "Alex Bores" con 28%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 42¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 42% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-12" ha generado $103.7K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Nov 21, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-12", explora los 19 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-12" es "Micah Lasher" con 42%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 42% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Alex Bores" con 28%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-12" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.