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Elecciones·Elecciones Del 4 De Noviembre

Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara de Representantes IN-04

Market icon
Elecciones·Elecciones Del 4 De Noviembre

Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara de Representantes IN-04

NEW
Polymarket
NEW

Partido Republicano

$0 Vol.

91%

Partido Demócrata

$0 Vol.

9%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus gives Republicans a 91% implied probability to retain Indiana's 4th Congressional District in the November 3 general election, driven by the seat's solid Republican tilt (R+15 Cook Partisan Voting Index) and incumbent Jim Baird's strong re-election campaign. Baird, who has held the seat since 2019 with comfortable margins exceeding 20 points, filed for 2026 in January and leads a four-way GOP primary on May 5 against challengers including former state Rep. Craig Haggard. Democrats field multiple primary contenders but lack a high-profile nominee or competitive polling in this rural, conservative stronghold. While entrenched advantages favor the GOP, a primary upset yielding a weaker Republican nominee, national Democratic midterm gains, or a Baird scandal could narrow the path.

Trader consensus gives Republicans a 91% implied probability to retain Indiana's 4th Congressional District in the November 3 general election, driven by the seat's solid Republican tilt (R+15 Cook Partisan Voting Index) and incumbent Jim Baird's strong re-election campaign. Baird, who has held the seat since 2019 with comfortable margins exceeding 20 points, filed for 2026 in January and leads a four-way GOP primary on May 5 against challengers including former state Rep. Craig Haggard. Democrats field multiple primary contenders but lack a high-profile nominee or competitive polling in this rural, conservative stronghold. While entrenched advantages favor the GOP, a primary upset yielding a weaker Republican nominee, national Democratic midterm gains, or a Baird scandal could narrow the path.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus gives Republicans a 91% implied probability to retain Indiana's 4th Congressional District in the November 3 general election, driven by the seat's solid Republican tilt (R+15 Cook Partisan Voting Index) and incumbent Jim Baird's strong re-election campaign. Baird, who has held the seat since 2019 with comfortable margins exceeding 20 points, filed for 2026 in January and leads a four-way GOP primary on May 5 against challengers including former state Rep. Craig Haggard. Democrats field multiple primary contenders but lack a high-profile nominee or competitive polling in this rural, conservative stronghold. While entrenched advantages favor the GOP, a primary upset yielding a weaker Republican nominee, national Democratic midterm gains, or a Baird scandal could narrow the path.

Trader consensus gives Republicans a 91% implied probability to retain Indiana's 4th Congressional District in the November 3 general election, driven by the seat's solid Republican tilt (R+15 Cook Partisan Voting Index) and incumbent Jim Baird's strong re-election campaign. Baird, who has held the seat since 2019 with comfortable margins exceeding 20 points, filed for 2026 in January and leads a four-way GOP primary on May 5 against challengers including former state Rep. Craig Haggard. Democrats field multiple primary contenders but lack a high-profile nominee or competitive polling in this rural, conservative stronghold. While entrenched advantages favor the GOP, a primary upset yielding a weaker Republican nominee, national Democratic midterm gains, or a Baird scandal could narrow the path.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara de Representantes IN-04" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Partido Republicano" con 91%, seguido de "Partido Demócrata" con 9%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 91¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 91% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara de Representantes IN-04" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Jan 28, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara de Representantes IN-04", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara de Representantes IN-04" es "Partido Republicano" con 91%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 91% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Partido Demócrata" con 9%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara de Representantes IN-04" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.