Trader consensus favors Tisza at 67% implied probability to win Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election, reflecting sustained leads in recent neutral and opposition-aligned polls like Politico's March 20 poll of polls (Tisza 52%, Fidesz 37%) and a hvg.hu/Medián survey from March 17-20 showing Tisza at 58% among decided voters versus Fidesz's 35%, a widening 23-point gap amid economic stagnation and cost-of-living pressures. Fidesz-aligned polls, such as Republikon (March 23-26: Fidesz 49%, Tisza 40%), claim an incumbent edge, bolstered by the March 15 Peace March rally, but traders prioritize broader polling averages and challenger Péter Magyar's momentum from large opposition rallies. Hungary's majoritarian electoral system could narrow Tisza's path despite the lead, with high turnout expected to decide key swing districts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones parlamentarias de Hungría
Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias de Hungría
TISZA 67%
Fidesz-KDNP 34%
Momentum <1%
DK <1%
$48,818,062 Vol.
$48,818,062 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
TISZA
67%
Fidesz-KDNP
34%
Momentum
<1%
DK
<1%
LMP
<1%
MSZP
<1%
Mi Hazánk
<1%
Párbeszéd
<1%
Jobbik
<1%
KDNP
<1%
TISZA 67%
Fidesz-KDNP 34%
Momentum <1%
DK <1%
$48,818,062 Vol.
$48,818,062 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
TISZA
$838,700 Vol.
67%
Fidesz-KDNP
$1,111,913 Vol.
34%
Momentum
$583,362 Vol.
<1%
DK
$4,874,095 Vol.
<1%
LMP
$14,325,701 Vol.
<1%
MSZP
$446,330 Vol.
<1%
Mi Hazánk
$459,810 Vol.
<1%
Párbeszéd
$7,086,493 Vol.
<1%
Jobbik
$14,786,561 Vol.
<1%
KDNP
$4,305,128 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).Trader consensus favors Tisza at 67% implied probability to win Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election, reflecting sustained leads in recent neutral and opposition-aligned polls like Politico's March 20 poll of polls (Tisza 52%, Fidesz 37%) and a hvg.hu/Medián survey from March 17-20 showing Tisza at 58% among decided voters versus Fidesz's 35%, a widening 23-point gap amid economic stagnation and cost-of-living pressures. Fidesz-aligned polls, such as Republikon (March 23-26: Fidesz 49%, Tisza 40%), claim an incumbent edge, bolstered by the March 15 Peace March rally, but traders prioritize broader polling averages and challenger Péter Magyar's momentum from large opposition rallies. Hungary's majoritarian electoral system could narrow Tisza's path despite the lead, with high turnout expected to decide key swing districts.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Mercado abierto: Dec 16, 2025, 3:19 PM ET
Volumen
$48,818,062Fecha de finalización
Apr 12, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 3:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).Trader consensus favors Tisza at 67% implied probability to win Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election, reflecting sustained leads in recent neutral and opposition-aligned polls like Politico's March 20 poll of polls (Tisza 52%, Fidesz 37%) and a hvg.hu/Medián survey from March 17-20 showing Tisza at 58% among decided voters versus Fidesz's 35%, a widening 23-point gap amid economic stagnation and cost-of-living pressures. Fidesz-aligned polls, such as Republikon (March 23-26: Fidesz 49%, Tisza 40%), claim an incumbent edge, bolstered by the March 15 Peace March rally, but traders prioritize broader polling averages and challenger Péter Magyar's momentum from large opposition rallies. Hungary's majoritarian electoral system could narrow Tisza's path despite the lead, with high turnout expected to decide key swing districts.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Volumen
$48,818,062Fecha de finalización
Apr 12, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 3:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors Tisza at 67% implied probability to win Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election, reflecting sustained leads in recent neutral and opposition-aligned polls like Politico's March 20 poll of polls (Tisza 52%, Fidesz 37%) and a hvg.hu/Medián survey from March 17-20 showing Tisza at 58% among decided voters versus Fidesz's 35%, a widening 23-point gap amid economic stagnation and cost-of-living pressures. Fidesz-aligned polls, such as Republikon (March 23-26: Fidesz 49%, Tisza 40%), claim an incumbent edge, bolstered by the March 15 Peace March rally, but traders prioritize broader polling averages and challenger Péter Magyar's momentum from large opposition rallies. Hungary's majoritarian electoral system could narrow Tisza's path despite the lead, with high turnout expected to decide key swing districts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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