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Política·Primarias

Ganador de las primarias republicanas de FL-19

Market icon
Política·Primarias

Ganador de las primarias republicanas de FL-19

Catalina Lauf 53%

Madison Cawthorn 16.6%

Jim Oberweis 10.2%

Spencer Roach 5.5%

Polymarket

$18,244 Vol.

Catalina Lauf 53%

Madison Cawthorn 16.6%

Jim Oberweis 10.2%

Spencer Roach 5.5%

Polymarket

$18,244 Vol.

Catalina Lauf

$15,461 Vol.

53%

Madison Cawthorn

$721 Vol.

17%

Jim Oberweis

$2,063 Vol.

10%

Spencer Roach

$0 Vol.

6%

Jim Schwartzel

$0 Vol.

13%

Bob Rommel

$0 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in Florida's 19th Congressional District Republican primary favors Catalina Lauf at 57.5% implied probability for the August 18 contest, driven by her standout Q1 fundraising topping $416,000, endorsement from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna as a "fierce America First fighter," and Trump-aligned credentials in this safe GOP seat vacated by Byron Donalds' gubernatorial bid. Local Fort Myers broadcaster Jim Schwartzel trails at 20% with over $1.4 million raised, bolstering his appeal amid voter scrutiny of out-of-state entrants like former NC Rep. Madison Cawthorn (15.7%), drawn by comeback prospects despite past baggage, and Illinois businessman Jim Oberweis (9.4%). No public polls exist; a mid-March analysis highlighted the crowded field of carpetbaggers versus locals, with candidate qualifying looming April 24.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volumen
$18,244
Fecha de finalización
18 ago 2026
Mercado abierto
Nov 25, 2025, 6:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in Florida's 19th Congressional District Republican primary favors Catalina Lauf at 57.5% implied probability for the August 18 contest, driven by her standout Q1 fundraising topping $416,000, endorsement from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna as a "fierce America First fighter," and Trump-aligned credentials in this safe GOP seat vacated by Byron Donalds' gubernatorial bid. Local Fort Myers broadcaster Jim Schwartzel trails at 20% with over $1.4 million raised, bolstering his appeal amid voter scrutiny of out-of-state entrants like former NC Rep. Madison Cawthorn (15.7%), drawn by comeback prospects despite past baggage, and Illinois businessman Jim Oberweis (9.4%). No public polls exist; a mid-March analysis highlighted the crowded field of carpetbaggers versus locals, with candidate qualifying looming April 24.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volumen
$18,244
Fecha de finalización
18 ago 2026
Mercado abierto
Nov 25, 2025, 6:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Ganador de las primarias republicanas de FL-19" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 6 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Catalina Lauf" con 54%, seguido de "Madison Cawthorn" con 17%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 54¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 54% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Ganador de las primarias republicanas de FL-19" ha generado $18.2K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Nov 25, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Ganador de las primarias republicanas de FL-19", explora los 6 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Ganador de las primarias republicanas de FL-19" es "Catalina Lauf" con 54%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 54% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Madison Cawthorn" con 17%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Ganador de las primarias republicanas de FL-19" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.