Trader consensus favors CDU with 54.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, reflecting its stable poll lead at 22-23% in late February INSA and Civey surveys, well ahead of AfD (16-17%), Die Linke (15-17%), SPD (16%), and Grüne (15%). The governing CDU-SPD coalition projects below a majority at 37-38%, amid low approval for Mayor Kai Wegner and national momentum from Chancellor Merz's recent Rhineland-Palatinate victory on March 22. Fragmented opposition and Berlin's mixed-member proportional system bolster CDU's path to plurality, though Die Linke edges AfD as second-favorite due to urban left-wing resilience. Upcoming campaign events could shift dynamics in this competitive field.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones estatales de Berlín
Ganador de las elecciones estatales de Berlín
CDU 55%
Linke 14%
AfD 12.4%
Verdes 8.8%
$1,297,516 Vol.
$1,297,516 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
55%
Linke
14%
AfD
12%
Verdes
9%
SPD
9%
BSW
1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
CDU 55%
Linke 14%
AfD 12.4%
Verdes 8.8%
$1,297,516 Vol.
$1,297,516 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
$8,473 Vol.
55%
Linke
$7,843 Vol.
14%
AfD
$955,250 Vol.
12%
Verdes
$22,189 Vol.
9%
SPD
$280,685 Vol.
9%
BSW
$10,787 Vol.
1%
FDP
$7,796 Vol.
<1%
FW
$4,577 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors CDU with 54.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, reflecting its stable poll lead at 22-23% in late February INSA and Civey surveys, well ahead of AfD (16-17%), Die Linke (15-17%), SPD (16%), and Grüne (15%). The governing CDU-SPD coalition projects below a majority at 37-38%, amid low approval for Mayor Kai Wegner and national momentum from Chancellor Merz's recent Rhineland-Palatinate victory on March 22. Fragmented opposition and Berlin's mixed-member proportional system bolster CDU's path to plurality, though Die Linke edges AfD as second-favorite due to urban left-wing resilience. Upcoming campaign events could shift dynamics in this competitive field.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Mercado abierto: Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
Volumen
$1,297,516Fecha de finalización
Sep 20, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors CDU with 54.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, reflecting its stable poll lead at 22-23% in late February INSA and Civey surveys, well ahead of AfD (16-17%), Die Linke (15-17%), SPD (16%), and Grüne (15%). The governing CDU-SPD coalition projects below a majority at 37-38%, amid low approval for Mayor Kai Wegner and national momentum from Chancellor Merz's recent Rhineland-Palatinate victory on March 22. Fragmented opposition and Berlin's mixed-member proportional system bolster CDU's path to plurality, though Die Linke edges AfD as second-favorite due to urban left-wing resilience. Upcoming campaign events could shift dynamics in this competitive field.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volumen
$1,297,516Fecha de finalización
Sep 20, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors CDU with 54.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, reflecting its stable poll lead at 22-23% in late February INSA and Civey surveys, well ahead of AfD (16-17%), Die Linke (15-17%), SPD (16%), and Grüne (15%). The governing CDU-SPD coalition projects below a majority at 37-38%, amid low approval for Mayor Kai Wegner and national momentum from Chancellor Merz's recent Rhineland-Palatinate victory on March 22. Fragmented opposition and Berlin's mixed-member proportional system bolster CDU's path to plurality, though Die Linke edges AfD as second-favorite due to urban left-wing resilience. Upcoming campaign events could shift dynamics in this competitive field.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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