Trader consensus favors CDU at 52.5% to secure the most seats as the largest party in Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election under proportional representation, reflecting its consistent poll lead around 22% in the latest February INSA survey amid a fragmented opposition. Incumbent CDU-SPD grand coalition under Mayor Kai Wegner governs but projects below a majority at 38-40%, strained by urban governance challenges like housing and migration. AfD trails at 17% on anti-immigration appeals, while SPD, Grüne, and Die Linke hover near 15-16% with regional strengths in left-leaning districts. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics, though national CDU momentum under Chancellor Merz and recent state wins sustain the edge; coalition negotiations post-election loom as key.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones estatales de Berlín
Ganador de las elecciones estatales de Berlín
CDU 53%
AfD 13.6%
Linke 12%
Verdes 10.3%
$1,576,121 Vol.
$1,576,121 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
53%
AfD
14%
Linke
12%
Verdes
10%
SPD
9%
BSW
1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
CDU 53%
AfD 13.6%
Linke 12%
Verdes 10.3%
$1,576,121 Vol.
$1,576,121 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
$8,718 Vol.
53%
AfD
$1,228,768 Vol.
14%
Linke
$8,007 Vol.
12%
Verdes
$22,434 Vol.
10%
SPD
$281,494 Vol.
9%
BSW
$15,087 Vol.
1%
FDP
$8,176 Vol.
<1%
FW
$4,979 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors CDU at 52.5% to secure the most seats as the largest party in Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election under proportional representation, reflecting its consistent poll lead around 22% in the latest February INSA survey amid a fragmented opposition. Incumbent CDU-SPD grand coalition under Mayor Kai Wegner governs but projects below a majority at 38-40%, strained by urban governance challenges like housing and migration. AfD trails at 17% on anti-immigration appeals, while SPD, Grüne, and Die Linke hover near 15-16% with regional strengths in left-leaning districts. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics, though national CDU momentum under Chancellor Merz and recent state wins sustain the edge; coalition negotiations post-election loom as key.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Mercado abierto: Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
Volumen
$1,576,121Fecha de finalización
Sep 20, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors CDU at 52.5% to secure the most seats as the largest party in Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election under proportional representation, reflecting its consistent poll lead around 22% in the latest February INSA survey amid a fragmented opposition. Incumbent CDU-SPD grand coalition under Mayor Kai Wegner governs but projects below a majority at 38-40%, strained by urban governance challenges like housing and migration. AfD trails at 17% on anti-immigration appeals, while SPD, Grüne, and Die Linke hover near 15-16% with regional strengths in left-leaning districts. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics, though national CDU momentum under Chancellor Merz and recent state wins sustain the edge; coalition negotiations post-election loom as key.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volumen
$1,576,121Fecha de finalización
Sep 20, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors CDU at 52.5% to secure the most seats as the largest party in Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election under proportional representation, reflecting its consistent poll lead around 22% in the latest February INSA survey amid a fragmented opposition. Incumbent CDU-SPD grand coalition under Mayor Kai Wegner governs but projects below a majority at 38-40%, strained by urban governance challenges like housing and migration. AfD trails at 17% on anti-immigration appeals, while SPD, Grüne, and Die Linke hover near 15-16% with regional strengths in left-leaning districts. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics, though national CDU momentum under Chancellor Merz and recent state wins sustain the edge; coalition negotiations post-election loom as key.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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