Civil Contract's dominant trader consensus at 83% implied probability stems from recent polls showing it leading with 24-41% support amid 30-37% undecided voters and fragmented opposition in Armenia's proportional representation system, where a 4% threshold favors the incumbent's plurality for the largest National Assembly bloc. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's reconfirmation as the party's prime ministerial candidate on March 30 solidified leadership, while March 31 arrests tied to alleged vote-buying by challenger Strong Armenia—polling 9-12%—further eroded rivals like Armenia Alliance and Prosperous Armenia. Campaign rhetoric on security threats and geopolitical pivots toward the West rallies base voters ahead of the June 7 election, though opposition consolidation or scandals could shift dynamics.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoContrato Civil 83%
Alianza Armenia 8%
Armenia Brillante 4.8%
Alianza Tengo Honor 1.7%
$90,309 Vol.
$90,309 Vol.
7 jun 2026
Contrato Civil
83%
Alianza Armenia
8%
Armenia Brillante
5%
Alianza Tengo Honor
2%
Congreso Nacional Armenio
<1%
Prosperará Armenia
<1%
Partido Hanrapetutyun
<1%
Heritage
<1%
Orinats Yerkir
<1%
Contrato Civil 83%
Alianza Armenia 8%
Armenia Brillante 4.8%
Alianza Tengo Honor 1.7%
$90,309 Vol.
$90,309 Vol.
7 jun 2026
Contrato Civil
$38,380 Vol.
83%
Alianza Armenia
$48,856 Vol.
8%
Armenia Brillante
$1,911 Vol.
5%
Alianza Tengo Honor
$0 Vol.
2%
Congreso Nacional Armenio
$1,162 Vol.
<1%
Prosperará Armenia
$0 Vol.
<1%
Partido Hanrapetutyun
$0 Vol.
<1%
Heritage
$0 Vol.
<1%
Orinats Yerkir
$0 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).Civil Contract's dominant trader consensus at 83% implied probability stems from recent polls showing it leading with 24-41% support amid 30-37% undecided voters and fragmented opposition in Armenia's proportional representation system, where a 4% threshold favors the incumbent's plurality for the largest National Assembly bloc. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's reconfirmation as the party's prime ministerial candidate on March 30 solidified leadership, while March 31 arrests tied to alleged vote-buying by challenger Strong Armenia—polling 9-12%—further eroded rivals like Armenia Alliance and Prosperous Armenia. Campaign rhetoric on security threats and geopolitical pivots toward the West rallies base voters ahead of the June 7 election, though opposition consolidation or scandals could shift dynamics.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
Mercado abierto: Dec 15, 2025, 7:08 PM ET
Volumen
$90,309Fecha de finalización
7 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 15, 2025, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).Civil Contract's dominant trader consensus at 83% implied probability stems from recent polls showing it leading with 24-41% support amid 30-37% undecided voters and fragmented opposition in Armenia's proportional representation system, where a 4% threshold favors the incumbent's plurality for the largest National Assembly bloc. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's reconfirmation as the party's prime ministerial candidate on March 30 solidified leadership, while March 31 arrests tied to alleged vote-buying by challenger Strong Armenia—polling 9-12%—further eroded rivals like Armenia Alliance and Prosperous Armenia. Campaign rhetoric on security threats and geopolitical pivots toward the West rallies base voters ahead of the June 7 election, though opposition consolidation or scandals could shift dynamics.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
Volumen
$90,309Fecha de finalización
7 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 15, 2025, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Civil Contract's dominant trader consensus at 83% implied probability stems from recent polls showing it leading with 24-41% support amid 30-37% undecided voters and fragmented opposition in Armenia's proportional representation system, where a 4% threshold favors the incumbent's plurality for the largest National Assembly bloc. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's reconfirmation as the party's prime ministerial candidate on March 30 solidified leadership, while March 31 arrests tied to alleged vote-buying by challenger Strong Armenia—polling 9-12%—further eroded rivals like Armenia Alliance and Prosperous Armenia. Campaign rhetoric on security threats and geopolitical pivots toward the West rallies base voters ahead of the June 7 election, though opposition consolidation or scandals could shift dynamics.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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