Fed Rates Odds &amp; Predictions | Polymarket

$230M Vol.

Monthly

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Kevin Warsh

94%

Yes94%No6%

Judy Shelton

NEW

$2M Vol.

Fed decision in April?

50+ bps decrease

25 bps decrease

Yes9%No91%

$5M Vol.

Monthly

Fed Decision in June?

50+ bps decrease

25 bps decrease

29%

Yes29%No71%

$939K Vol.

Monthly

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)

19%

Yes19%No81%

1 (25 bps)

26%

Yes26%No74%

$8M Vol.

Fed rate cut by...?

March Meeting

April Meeting

15%

Yes15%No85%

$995K Vol.

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

≤1.0%

2.5%

$327K Vol.

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

March 31

May 14

$1M Vol.

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

4.4%

Yes7%No93%

4.5%

$117K Vol.

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

Cut–Pause–Pause

99%

Yes99%No1%

Cut–Pause–Cut

$1M Vol.

Daily

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↓ 3.25%

91%

Yes91%No9%

↓ 3.0%

69%

Yes69%No31%

$654K Vol.

Will Stephen Miran dissent the next Fed decision?

97%

chance

Yes

$13K Vol.

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Pause–Pause–Pause

64%

Pause–Pause–Cut

22%

Yes22%No78%

$24K Vol.

Daily

Fed rate hike in 2026?

10%

chance

Yes

$110K Vol.

Nothing Ever Happens: Interest Rates

95%

chance

Yes

$46K Vol.

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

19%

chance

Yes

$37K Vol.

Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition

99%

chance

Yes

$17K Vol.

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

3.9%

86%

Yes86%No14%

3.8%

78%

Yes78%No22%

$46K Vol.

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

4.4%

64%

4.5%

54%

Yes54%No46%

$95K Vol.

Weekly

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

Pause–Pause–Pause

85%

Yes85%No15%

Pause–Pause–Cut

Yes8%No92%

$59K Vol.

Daily

All

Trade War

Fed Rates

Inflation

Macro Indicators

GDP

Global Rates

Taxes

Treasuries

TSA

Housing

Fed Rates

Fed decision in March?

50+ bps decrease

<1%

Yes<1%No100%

25 bps decrease

$230M Vol.

Monthly

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Kevin Warsh

94%

Yes94%No6%

Judy Shelton

NEW

$2M Vol.

Fed decision in April?

50+ bps decrease

25 bps decrease

Yes9%No91%

$5M Vol.

Monthly

Fed Decision in June?

50+ bps decrease

25 bps decrease

29%

Yes29%No71%

$939K Vol.

Monthly

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)

19%

Yes19%No81%

1 (25 bps)

26%

Yes26%No74%

$8M Vol.

Fed rate cut by...?

March Meeting

April Meeting

15%

Yes15%No85%

$995K Vol.

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

≤1.0%

2.5%

$327K Vol.

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

March 31

May 14

$1M Vol.

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

4.4%

Yes7%No93%

4.5%

$117K Vol.

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

Cut–Pause–Pause

99%

Yes99%No1%

Cut–Pause–Cut

$1M Vol.

Daily

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↓ 3.25%

91%

Yes91%No9%

↓ 3.0%

69%

Yes69%No31%

$654K Vol.

Will Stephen Miran dissent the next Fed decision?

97%

chance

Yes

$13K Vol.

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Pause–Pause–Pause

64%

Pause–Pause–Cut

22%

Yes22%No78%

$24K Vol.

Daily

Fed rate hike in 2026?

10%

chance

Yes

$110K Vol.

Nothing Ever Happens: Interest Rates

95%

chance

Yes

$46K Vol.

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

19%

chance

Yes

$37K Vol.

Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition

99%

chance

Yes

$17K Vol.

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

3.9%

86%

Yes86%No14%

3.8%

78%

Yes78%No22%

$46K Vol.

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

4.4%

64%