Fed Rates Odds & Predictions | Polymarket

Economy

Economy

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? card icon

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Kevin Warsh

45%

Rick Rieder

29%

Kevin Warsh

45%

Rick Rieder

29%

$241m Vol.

Fed decision in January? card icon

Fed decision in January?

50+ bps decrease

<1%

25 bps decrease

2%

50+ bps decrease

<1%

25 bps decrease

2%

$447m Vol.

Monthly
Fed decision in March? card icon

Fed decision in March?

50+ bps decrease

1%

25 bps decrease

17%

50+ bps decrease

1%

25 bps decrease

17%

$3m Vol.

Monthly
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? card icon

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)

7%

1 (25 bps)

10%

0 (0 bps)

7%

1 (25 bps)

10%

$3m Vol.

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan) card icon

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Cut–Cut–Pause

98%

Cut–Cut–Cut

2%

Cut–Cut–Pause

98%

Cut–Cut–Cut

2%

$971k Vol.

Daily
Fed rate cut by...? card icon

Fed rate cut by...?

January Meeting

2%

March Meeting

23%

January Meeting

2%

March Meeting

23%

$435k Vol.

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? card icon

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

≤1.0%

3%

1.25

1%

≤1.0%

3%

1.25

1%

$64k Vol.

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31? card icon

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

4.4%

46%

4.5%

19%

4.4%

46%

4.5%

19%

$57k Vol.

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...? card icon

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

March 31

4%

May 14

8%

March 31

4%

May 14

8%

$591k Vol.

Fed decision in April? card icon

Fed decision in April?

50+ bps decrease

3%

25 bps decrease

24%

50+ bps decrease

3%

25 bps decrease

24%

$741k Vol.

Monthly
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027? card icon

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↑ 5.5%

2%

↑ 5.25%

3%

↑ 5.5%

2%

↑ 5.25%

3%

$466k Vol.

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027? card icon

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

4.4%

76%

4.5%

-

4.4%

76%

4.5%

-

$37k Vol.

Weekly
Fed decisions (Dec-Mar) card icon

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

Cut–Pause–Pause

77%

Cut–Pause–Cut

20%

Cut–Pause–Pause

77%

Cut–Pause–Cut

20%

$486k Vol.

Daily
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027? card icon

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

4.0%

53%

3.9%

77%

4.0%

53%

3.9%

77%

$22k Vol.

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…? card icon

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

May 30

55%

December 31

73%

May 30

55%

December 31

73%

$66k Vol.