Fed Rates Odds & Predictions | Polymarket

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Economy

Economy

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Fed decision in January? card icon

Fed decision in January?

50+ bps decrease

<1%

25 bps decrease

4%

50+ bps decrease

<1%

25 bps decrease

4%

$405m Vol.

repeat-3Monthly
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? card icon

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Kevin Warsh

55%

Rick Rieder

17%

Kevin Warsh

55%

Rick Rieder

17%

$211m Vol.

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? card icon

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)

5%

1 (25 bps)

9%

0 (0 bps)

5%

1 (25 bps)

9%

$3m Vol.

Fed decision in March? card icon

Fed decision in March?

50+ bps decrease

2%

25 bps decrease

17%

50+ bps decrease

2%

25 bps decrease

17%

$3m Vol.

repeat-3Monthly
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...? card icon

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

March 31

4%

May 14

9%

March 31

4%

May 14

9%

$478k Vol.

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar) card icon

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

Cut–Pause–Pause

81%

Cut–Pause–Cut

15%

Cut–Pause–Pause

81%

Cut–Pause–Cut

15%

$448k Vol.

repeat-3Daily
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027? card icon

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↑ 5.5%

2%

↑ 5.25%

3%

↑ 5.5%

2%

↑ 5.25%

3%

$439k Vol.

Fed rate cut by...? card icon

Fed rate cut by...?

January Meeting

5%

March Meeting

28%

January Meeting

5%

March Meeting

28%

$355k Vol.

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? card icon

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

≤1.0%

3%

1.25

1%

≤1.0%

3%

1.25

1%

$31k Vol.

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan) card icon

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Cut–Cut–Pause

96%

Cut–Cut–Cut

4%

Cut–Cut–Pause

96%

Cut–Cut–Cut

4%

$869k Vol.

repeat-3Daily
Fed decision in April? card icon

Fed decision in April?

50+ bps decrease

3%

25 bps decrease

26%

50+ bps decrease

3%

25 bps decrease

26%

$713k Vol.

repeat-3Monthly
How many dissent at the next Fed meeting? card icon

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

0

3%

1

49%

0

3%

1

49%

$18k Vol.

repeat-3Daily
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31? card icon

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

4.3%

59%

4.4%

19%

4.3%

59%

4.4%

19%

$18k Vol.