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Trade War Odds & Predictions | Polymarket

Economy

AllTrade WarFed RatesInflationMacro IndicatorsGDPGlobal RatesTaxesTreasuriesTSAHousing

Economy

AllTrade WarFed RatesInflationMacro IndicatorsGDPGlobal RatesTaxesTreasuriesTSAHousing
How much revenue will the U.S. raise from tariffs in 2025? card icon

How much revenue will the U.S. raise from tariffs in 2025?

<$100b

90%

Yes90%No10%

$100–200b

2%

Yes2%No98%

<$100b

90%

Yes90%No10%

$100–200b

2%

Yes2%No98%

$7m Vol.

Will Trump visit China by...? card icon

Will Trump visit China by...?

March 31, 2026

3%

Yes3%No97%

April 30, 2026

90%

Yes90%No10%

March 31, 2026

3%

Yes3%No97%

April 30, 2026

90%

Yes90%No10%

$1m Vol.

Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? card icon

Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?

27%

chance

Yes

No

$4m Vol.

Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025? card icon

Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?

2%

chance

Yes

No

$1m Vol.

Asked by

Jason Calacanis image

Jason Calacanis

Silver (SI) above ___ end of June? card icon

Silver (SI) above ___ end of June?

$140

14%

Yes14%No86%

$120

25%

Yes25%No75%

$140

14%

Yes14%No86%

$120

25%

Yes25%No75%

$116k Vol.

Monthly
Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tariffs by...? card icon

Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by February 20?

16%

chance

Yes

No

$646k Vol.

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027? card icon

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

Indonesia

31%

Yes31%No69%

Argentina

31%

Yes31%No69%

Indonesia

31%

Yes31%No69%

Argentina

31%

Yes31%No69%

$205k Vol.

How many SCOTUS justices rule in favor of Trump's tariffs? card icon

How many SCOTUS justices rule in favor of Trump's tariffs?

0

14%

Yes14%No86%

1

6%

Yes6%No94%

0

14%

Yes14%No86%

1

6%

Yes6%No94%

$144k Vol.

Silver (SI) above ___ end of February? card icon

Silver (SI) above ___ end of February?

$120

18%

Yes18%No82%

$110

32%

Yes32%No68%

$120

18%

Yes18%No82%

$110

32%

Yes32%No68%

NEW

Monthly
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? card icon

Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

18%

chance

Yes

No

$34k Vol.

US tariff revenue up in Q4 2025? card icon

US tariff revenue up in Q4 2025?

89%

chance

Yes

No

NEW

Daily
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