Recent U.S. economic data and shifts in Federal Reserve communications under Chair Kevin Warsh have driven mixed trader sentiment on the September, October, and December 2026 FOMC decisions. Solid August payrolls and an unemployment rate holding at 4.1% alongside elevated inflation—July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and PCE measures above 3%—have raised the odds of at least one 25-basis-point hike from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range. Market-implied probabilities remain closely contested across pause and hike sequences, reflecting uncertainty over whether persistent supply-side pressures will prompt tightening before year-end or allow a hold. The September 15-16 meeting, which includes updated economic projections and a dot plot, stands as the key near-term catalyst that could clarify the policy path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPause–Pause–Pause 27%
Hike–Pause–Pause 18%
Pause–Pause–Hike 15%
Pause–Hike–Hike 11%
$11,653 Vol.
$11,653 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
10%
Hike–Pause–Pause
18%
Hike–Hike–Hike
5%
Hike–Hike–Pause
9%
Pause–Pause–Hike
15%
Pause–Pause–Pause
27%
Pause–Hike–Hike
11%
Pause–Hike–Pause
9%
Other
9%
Pause–Pause–Pause 27%
Hike–Pause–Pause 18%
Pause–Pause–Hike 15%
Pause–Hike–Hike 11%
$11,653 Vol.
$11,653 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
$314 Vol.
10%
Hike–Pause–Pause
$479 Vol.
18%
Hike–Hike–Hike
$216 Vol.
5%
Hike–Hike–Pause
$429 Vol.
9%
Pause–Pause–Hike
$253 Vol.
15%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$9,140 Vol.
27%
Pause–Hike–Hike
$237 Vol.
11%
Pause–Hike–Pause
$336 Vol.
9%
Other
$249 Vol.
9%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent U.S. economic data and shifts in Federal Reserve communications under Chair Kevin Warsh have driven mixed trader sentiment on the September, October, and December 2026 FOMC decisions. Solid August payrolls and an unemployment rate holding at 4.1% alongside elevated inflation—July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and PCE measures above 3%—have raised the odds of at least one 25-basis-point hike from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range. Market-implied probabilities remain closely contested across pause and hike sequences, reflecting uncertainty over whether persistent supply-side pressures will prompt tightening before year-end or allow a hold. The September 15-16 meeting, which includes updated economic projections and a dot plot, stands as the key near-term catalyst that could clarify the policy path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Volume
$11,653End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent U.S. economic data and shifts in Federal Reserve communications under Chair Kevin Warsh have driven mixed trader sentiment on the September, October, and December 2026 FOMC decisions. Solid August payrolls and an unemployment rate holding at 4.1% alongside elevated inflation—July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and PCE measures above 3%—have raised the odds of at least one 25-basis-point hike from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range. Market-implied probabilities remain closely contested across pause and hike sequences, reflecting uncertainty over whether persistent supply-side pressures will prompt tightening before year-end or allow a hold. The September 15-16 meeting, which includes updated economic projections and a dot plot, stands as the key near-term catalyst that could clarify the policy path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$11,653End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. economic data and shifts in Federal Reserve communications under Chair Kevin Warsh have driven mixed trader sentiment on the September, October, and December 2026 FOMC decisions. Solid August payrolls and an unemployment rate holding at 4.1% alongside elevated inflation—July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and PCE measures above 3%—have raised the odds of at least one 25-basis-point hike from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range. Market-implied probabilities remain closely contested across pause and hike sequences, reflecting uncertainty over whether persistent supply-side pressures will prompt tightening before year-end or allow a hold. The September 15-16 meeting, which includes updated economic projections and a dot plot, stands as the key near-term catalyst that could clarify the policy path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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