**Elevated inflation remains the dominant driver behind the leading Hike–Hike–Hike path at 42.5% implied probability for the September–December FOMC meetings.** After the Fed’s unanimous 25 basis point hike on September 16 to a 3.75–4.00% target range—the first since 2023—policymakers raised their median 2026 federal funds rate projection to 4.1%, signaling one additional quarter-point move by year-end amid PCE inflation near 3.7%. The stable labor market, with unemployment holding around 4.1%, has allowed focus to shift firmly to price stability, while the dot plot showed 16 of 18 participants expecting further tightening. Market-implied odds for the October 28 and December 9 decisions align with this hawkish tilt, though October data releases and any signs of disinflation could still alter the path.