The Fed’s unanimous 25 basis point hike on September 16 to a 3.75–4.00% target range, paired with an updated Summary of Economic Projections showing a 4.125% median endpoint for 2026 and 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one additional increase, anchors the 90.5% market-implied probability of another hike before year-end. Elevated core PCE inflation near 3.4%, solid GDP growth revised to 2.3%, and a stable 4.1% unemployment rate have reinforced the hawkish tilt under Chair Warsh, while futures markets price roughly 65% odds for an October move and nearly 80% for December. Traders’ capital-weighted consensus reflects these near-term data risks and the absence of clear disinflation progress. Still, materially cooler CPI prints or signs of labor-market softening ahead of the December meeting could shift the path toward a pause.