Recent September FOMC minutes and the updated dot plot show most participants view another 25-basis-point federal funds rate hike as likely appropriate before year-end 2026, citing persistently elevated inflation with August core PCE at 3.4% and headline at 3.8%, limited recent progress toward the 2% target, and upside risks from energy prices and AI-related demand. Markets currently price low odds for an October move but assign roughly 70-80% probability to a December hike, consistent with the 79% Yes implied probability on this market. Key near-term catalysts include the September CPI release, October employment data, and the December FOMC meeting with fresh projections.