Polymarket | The World’s Largest Prediction Market™

MrBauer

Disclosure: I hold NO in this market. I read OpenAI PR #71 closely. Its original commit used gpt-6-astra only as an example “for projects with access”; that suggests gated or pre-release plumbing, not proof of public availability by Sep 3 ET. OpenAI’s Sep 1 post says Astra is coming soon and that advanced cyber access will initially be limited. Thursday raises the launch odds, but this market requires public access, so I think the current YES price overstates certainty.

Aching-Warmth

Sure)))))

Hilarious-Frown

The market for Sept 3 is supposed to be resolved as NO

MrBauer

as I said :)

QMG-CORE

AXIOS: OpenAI slows release of Astra model citing cyber capabilities

Yellowish-Email

Good products take time. At least 34 days.

MrBauer

Disclosure: I hold NO in this market. I read OpenAI PR #71 closely. Its original commit used gpt-6-astra only as an example “for projects with access”; that suggests gated or pre-release plumbing, not proof of public availability by Sep 3 ET. OpenAI’s Sep 1 post says Astra is coming soon and that advanced cyber access will initially be limited. Thursday raises the launch odds, but this market requires public access, so I think the current YES price overstates certainty.

Aching-Warmth

Sure)))))

Hilarious-Frown

The market for Sept 3 is supposed to be resolved as NO

MrBauer

as I said :)

QMG-CORE

AXIOS: OpenAI slows release of Astra model citing cyber capabilities

Yellowish-Email

Good products take time. At least 34 days.

MrBauer

Disclosure: I hold NO in this market. I read OpenAI PR #71 closely. Its original commit used gpt-6-astra only as an example “for projects with access”; that suggests gated or pre-release plumbing, not proof of public availability by Sep 3 ET. OpenAI’s Sep 1 post says Astra is coming soon and that advanced cyber access will initially be limited. Thursday raises the launch odds, but this market requires public access, so I think the current YES price overstates certainty.

Aching-Warmth

Sure)))))

Hilarious-Frown

The market for Sept 3 is supposed to be resolved as NO

MrBauer

as I said :)

QMG-CORE

AXIOS: OpenAI slows release of Astra model citing cyber capabilities

Yellowish-Email

Good products take time. At least 34 days.

Banewong

i asked grok about the result

lancelot-767

[link removed] How is this even legal? 😳

fennac1

Note that the Opus currently on lmarena isn't even the thinking version. Its score will be even higher once the thinking version is released.

DYING-IN-XXTYLE-PART...

the life-cycle of an xAI holder - "xAI is wayyy underpriced, new version of Grok drops next week!" - "okay, look like it's been delayed until next month, that means it's going to be even stronger" - *buys more shares after prices goes up* - "hahahaha all you Gemitards are gonna find out soon enough, better sell while you still can!" - *new version of Grok releases* - "LMArena is a shitty benchmark anyways" - "why are we letting one site determine an entire market" - rinse and repeat

pooperman

If you actually used LMArena, Grok will say it's an outdated model. Congrats, you played yourself.

DYING-IN-XXTYLE-PART...

-50% on your position lol

Banewong

i asked grok about the result

lancelot-767

[link removed] How is this even legal? 😳

fennac1

Note that the Opus currently on lmarena isn't even the thinking version. Its score will be even higher once the thinking version is released.

DYING-IN-XXTYLE-PART...

the life-cycle of an xAI holder - "xAI is wayyy underpriced, new version of Grok drops next week!" - "okay, look like it's been delayed until next month, that means it's going to be even stronger" - *buys more shares after prices goes up* - "hahahaha all you Gemitards are gonna find out soon enough, better sell while you still can!" - *new version of Grok releases* - "LMArena is a shitty benchmark anyways" - "why are we letting one site determine an entire market" - rinse and repeat

pooperman

If you actually used LMArena, Grok will say it's an outdated model. Congrats, you played yourself.

DYING-IN-XXTYLE-PART...

-50% on your position lol

Banewong

i asked grok about the result

lancelot-767

[link removed] How is this even legal? 😳

fennac1

Note that the Opus currently on lmarena isn't even the thinking version. Its score will be even higher once the thinking version is released.

DYING-IN-XXTYLE-PART...

the life-cycle of an xAI holder - "xAI is wayyy underpriced, new version of Grok drops next week!" - "okay, look like it's been delayed until next month, that means it's going to be even stronger" - *buys more shares after prices goes up* - "hahahaha all you Gemitards are gonna find out soon enough, better sell while you still can!" - *new version of Grok releases* - "LMArena is a shitty benchmark anyways" - "why are we letting one site determine an entire market" - rinse and repeat

pooperman

If you actually used LMArena, Grok will say it's an outdated model. Congrats, you played yourself.

DYING-IN-XXTYLE-PART...

-50% on your position lol

JohnA

No matter the result, its an honor to gamble with you fellow degens

TheAllKnowingSeer

We shall win.

JeanneDeETH

Fullspeed across the casino, that's the intended way, amen.

AluCard

Insha Allah

www-uma-rocks

you're welcome

www-uma-rocks

In degen we trust 💪

JohnA

No matter the result, its an honor to gamble with you fellow degens

TheAllKnowingSeer

We shall win.

JeanneDeETH

Fullspeed across the casino, that's the intended way, amen.

AluCard

Insha Allah

www-uma-rocks

you're welcome

www-uma-rocks

In degen we trust 💪

JohnA

No matter the result, its an honor to gamble with you fellow degens

TheAllKnowingSeer

We shall win.

JeanneDeETH

Fullspeed across the casino, that's the intended way, amen.

AluCard

Insha Allah

www-uma-rocks

you're welcome

www-uma-rocks

In degen we trust 💪

ghachu

you can like only one comment a time

NoUsername868

👌

skibidi-dibidi

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skibidi-dibidi

sup

wsggng

Actually true

Noted-Purchase

Porn is healthier than everything.

ghachu

you can like only one comment a time

NoUsername868

👌

skibidi-dibidi

porn is healthier than this shiii

skibidi-dibidi

sup

wsggng

Actually true

Noted-Purchase

Porn is healthier than everything.

ghachu

you can like only one comment a time

NoUsername868

👌

skibidi-dibidi

porn is healthier than this shiii

skibidi-dibidi

sup

wsggng

Actually true

Noted-Purchase

Porn is healthier than everything.

ANT0N

Jodar hello?

JWCiv

Add Jodar

jiffyjoker66888

medvedev no is free money that clown will never win

BieL.Sol.

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benoitgagnon997

Leegunner lets goo coboliiiiii

ANT0N

Jodar hello?

JWCiv

Add Jodar

jiffyjoker66888

medvedev no is free money that clown will never win

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benoitgagnon997

Leegunner lets goo coboliiiiii

ANT0N

Jodar hello?

JWCiv

Add Jodar

jiffyjoker66888

medvedev no is free money that clown will never win

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benoitgagnon997

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CKAB

Dollars on sale for 28c. It's so glaringly, blatantly obvious that Newsom wins in 2028 and 2032. Anyone who can't see this one coming from a mile away is deaf, dumb and blind.

boogz

nah the fact his name sounds like NewSCUM makes it practically impossible xd

lmg743

Anyone who claims the dem candidate is "obvious" at this stage is an idiot

bet25225

ngl I just think the one who is gonna win democrats over is gonna be the person who fights and picks their battles with republicans well. Basically the person who is able to actually able to affectively combat the opposing side. I am ngl we have had good people with decent policy but we haven't had anybody in a while who can debate well. Newsom is definitely that so far.

beruofc

The Rock having more votes than Kamala Harris is sending me 🤣🤣🤣

BeezoDokiDoki

[link removed]

CKAB

Dollars on sale for 28c. It's so glaringly, blatantly obvious that Newsom wins in 2028 and 2032. Anyone who can't see this one coming from a mile away is deaf, dumb and blind.

boogz

nah the fact his name sounds like NewSCUM makes it practically impossible xd

lmg743

Anyone who claims the dem candidate is "obvious" at this stage is an idiot

bet25225

ngl I just think the one who is gonna win democrats over is gonna be the person who fights and picks their battles with republicans well. Basically the person who is able to actually able to affectively combat the opposing side. I am ngl we have had good people with decent policy but we haven't had anybody in a while who can debate well. Newsom is definitely that so far.

beruofc

The Rock having more votes than Kamala Harris is sending me 🤣🤣🤣

BeezoDokiDoki

[link removed]

CKAB

Dollars on sale for 28c. It's so glaringly, blatantly obvious that Newsom wins in 2028 and 2032. Anyone who can't see this one coming from a mile away is deaf, dumb and blind.

boogz

nah the fact his name sounds like NewSCUM makes it practically impossible xd

lmg743

Anyone who claims the dem candidate is "obvious" at this stage is an idiot

bet25225

ngl I just think the one who is gonna win democrats over is gonna be the person who fights and picks their battles with republicans well. Basically the person who is able to actually able to affectively combat the opposing side. I am ngl we have had good people with decent policy but we haven't had anybody in a while who can debate well. Newsom is definitely that so far.

beruofc

The Rock having more votes than Kamala Harris is sending me 🤣🤣🤣

BeezoDokiDoki

[link removed]