Recent hotter-than-expected September CPI data, showing headline inflation at 3.7% year-over-year and core at 2.6%, has lifted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting by highlighting persistent price pressures from energy and shelter costs. Trader consensus on Polymarket still assigns a 72.5% probability to no change from the current 3.75%-4.00% target range, reflecting Fed officials' September minutes signaling another hike likely by year-end but with limited urgency for October given cooling labor market signals and the meeting's proximity to elections. This positions the 27% chance of a 25 bp increase as the main alternative, while near-zero probabilities for cuts underscore limited downside risks priced in ahead of the decision.