Trader consensus prices an 87% implied probability on "No" for President Trump cutting long-term capital gains tax rates before 2027, reflecting the absence of enacted legislation despite the administration's major One Big Beautiful Bill signed July 4, 2025, which preserved existing 0%, 15%, and 20% brackets without reductions. A March 19 proposal for lower rates immediately faced criticism from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, projecting nearly $1 trillion added to national debt over a decade amid fiscal pressures from debt ceiling debates and appropriations battles. With slim Republican majorities vulnerable to 2026 midterms, reconciliation timelines tight, and no bill advancing in Congress, traders see significant procedural and political barriers to passage by year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
是
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices an 87% implied probability on "No" for President Trump cutting long-term capital gains tax rates before 2027, reflecting the absence of enacted legislation despite the administration's major One Big Beautiful Bill signed July 4, 2025, which preserved existing 0%, 15%, and 20% brackets without reductions. A March 19 proposal for lower rates immediately faced criticism from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, projecting nearly $1 trillion added to national debt over a decade amid fiscal pressures from debt ceiling debates and appropriations battles. With slim Republican majorities vulnerable to 2026 midterms, reconciliation timelines tight, and no bill advancing in Congress, traders see significant procedural and political barriers to passage by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ET
交易量
$1,064结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices an 87% implied probability on "No" for President Trump cutting long-term capital gains tax rates before 2027, reflecting the absence of enacted legislation despite the administration's major One Big Beautiful Bill signed July 4, 2025, which preserved existing 0%, 15%, and 20% brackets without reductions. A March 19 proposal for lower rates immediately faced criticism from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, projecting nearly $1 trillion added to national debt over a decade amid fiscal pressures from debt ceiling debates and appropriations battles. With slim Republican majorities vulnerable to 2026 midterms, reconciliation timelines tight, and no bill advancing in Congress, traders see significant procedural and political barriers to passage by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$1,064结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 87% implied probability on "No" for President Trump cutting long-term capital gains tax rates before 2027, reflecting the absence of enacted legislation despite the administration's major One Big Beautiful Bill signed July 4, 2025, which preserved existing 0%, 15%, and 20% brackets without reductions. A March 19 proposal for lower rates immediately faced criticism from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, projecting nearly $1 trillion added to national debt over a decade amid fiscal pressures from debt ceiling debates and appropriations battles. With slim Republican majorities vulnerable to 2026 midterms, reconciliation timelines tight, and no bill advancing in Congress, traders see significant procedural and political barriers to passage by year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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