**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 87.5% implied probability on Trump cutting long-term capital gains tax rates before 2027, reflecting stalled legislative progress amid fiscal hurdles.** Recent GOP efforts, including a March 4 letter from Senators Ted Cruz and Tim Scott urging Treasury regulatory indexing for inflation—potentially a $200 billion cut without Congress—have yielded no action from the administration. A March 19 think tank analysis warned such a proposal could add nearly $1 trillion to national debt over the decade, amplifying deficit concerns. IRS confirmed March 9 that 2026 long-term rates remain at 0%, 15%, and 20% with adjusted thresholds only, unchanged from prior law. The 2025 "One Big Beautiful Bill" extended TCJA provisions via reconciliation but excluded broad capital gains reductions, leaving slim Republican majorities facing midterm elections in November 2026 and lame-duck session pressures as key barriers to enactment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
是
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 87.5% implied probability on Trump cutting long-term capital gains tax rates before 2027, reflecting stalled legislative progress amid fiscal hurdles.** Recent GOP efforts, including a March 4 letter from Senators Ted Cruz and Tim Scott urging Treasury regulatory indexing for inflation—potentially a $200 billion cut without Congress—have yielded no action from the administration. A March 19 think tank analysis warned such a proposal could add nearly $1 trillion to national debt over the decade, amplifying deficit concerns. IRS confirmed March 9 that 2026 long-term rates remain at 0%, 15%, and 20% with adjusted thresholds only, unchanged from prior law. The 2025 "One Big Beautiful Bill" extended TCJA provisions via reconciliation but excluded broad capital gains reductions, leaving slim Republican majorities facing midterm elections in November 2026 and lame-duck session pressures as key barriers to enactment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ET
交易量
$1,064结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 87.5% implied probability on Trump cutting long-term capital gains tax rates before 2027, reflecting stalled legislative progress amid fiscal hurdles.** Recent GOP efforts, including a March 4 letter from Senators Ted Cruz and Tim Scott urging Treasury regulatory indexing for inflation—potentially a $200 billion cut without Congress—have yielded no action from the administration. A March 19 think tank analysis warned such a proposal could add nearly $1 trillion to national debt over the decade, amplifying deficit concerns. IRS confirmed March 9 that 2026 long-term rates remain at 0%, 15%, and 20% with adjusted thresholds only, unchanged from prior law. The 2025 "One Big Beautiful Bill" extended TCJA provisions via reconciliation but excluded broad capital gains reductions, leaving slim Republican majorities facing midterm elections in November 2026 and lame-duck session pressures as key barriers to enactment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$1,064结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 87.5% implied probability on Trump cutting long-term capital gains tax rates before 2027, reflecting stalled legislative progress amid fiscal hurdles.** Recent GOP efforts, including a March 4 letter from Senators Ted Cruz and Tim Scott urging Treasury regulatory indexing for inflation—potentially a $200 billion cut without Congress—have yielded no action from the administration. A March 19 think tank analysis warned such a proposal could add nearly $1 trillion to national debt over the decade, amplifying deficit concerns. IRS confirmed March 9 that 2026 long-term rates remain at 0%, 15%, and 20% with adjusted thresholds only, unchanged from prior law. The 2025 "One Big Beautiful Bill" extended TCJA provisions via reconciliation but excluded broad capital gains reductions, leaving slim Republican majorities facing midterm elections in November 2026 and lame-duck session pressures as key barriers to enactment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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