Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 76.5% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of a Latin American country in 2026, driven by the Trump administration's preference for targeted special forces deployments and joint operations over full-scale ground invasions. Recent developments include U.S. special forces arriving in Ecuador on March 4 for anti-cartel efforts under Operation Southern Spear, alongside airstrikes near the Colombian border dubbed Operation Total Extermination, but these remain advisory and coalition-based without occupation. Rhetoric escalated around Cuba amid blackouts and oil blockades, yet on March 19, the U.S. Southern Command chief explicitly denied invasion preparations. Earlier January intervention in Venezuela involved limited raids for oil access rather than sustained troops, aligning with diplomatic sanctions and Shield of Americas coalition-building to counter cartels and China influence without broader military escalation. Upcoming regional summits may clarify further de-escalation signals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$193,043 交易量
$193,043 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
是
$193,043 交易量
$193,043 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 76.5% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of a Latin American country in 2026, driven by the Trump administration's preference for targeted special forces deployments and joint operations over full-scale ground invasions. Recent developments include U.S. special forces arriving in Ecuador on March 4 for anti-cartel efforts under Operation Southern Spear, alongside airstrikes near the Colombian border dubbed Operation Total Extermination, but these remain advisory and coalition-based without occupation. Rhetoric escalated around Cuba amid blackouts and oil blockades, yet on March 19, the U.S. Southern Command chief explicitly denied invasion preparations. Earlier January intervention in Venezuela involved limited raids for oil access rather than sustained troops, aligning with diplomatic sanctions and Shield of Americas coalition-building to counter cartels and China influence without broader military escalation. Upcoming regional summits may clarify further de-escalation signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
市场开放时间： Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ET
交易量
$193,043结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 76.5% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of a Latin American country in 2026, driven by the Trump administration's preference for targeted special forces deployments and joint operations over full-scale ground invasions. Recent developments include U.S. special forces arriving in Ecuador on March 4 for anti-cartel efforts under Operation Southern Spear, alongside airstrikes near the Colombian border dubbed Operation Total Extermination, but these remain advisory and coalition-based without occupation. Rhetoric escalated around Cuba amid blackouts and oil blockades, yet on March 19, the U.S. Southern Command chief explicitly denied invasion preparations. Earlier January intervention in Venezuela involved limited raids for oil access rather than sustained troops, aligning with diplomatic sanctions and Shield of Americas coalition-building to counter cartels and China influence without broader military escalation. Upcoming regional summits may clarify further de-escalation signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
交易量
$193,043结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 76.5% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of a Latin American country in 2026, driven by the Trump administration's preference for targeted special forces deployments and joint operations over full-scale ground invasions. Recent developments include U.S. special forces arriving in Ecuador on March 4 for anti-cartel efforts under Operation Southern Spear, alongside airstrikes near the Colombian border dubbed Operation Total Extermination, but these remain advisory and coalition-based without occupation. Rhetoric escalated around Cuba amid blackouts and oil blockades, yet on March 19, the U.S. Southern Command chief explicitly denied invasion preparations. Earlier January intervention in Venezuela involved limited raids for oil access rather than sustained troops, aligning with diplomatic sanctions and Shield of Americas coalition-building to counter cartels and China influence without broader military escalation. Upcoming regional summits may clarify further de-escalation signals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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