Market icon
政治·特朗普

Elon是否会在2027年之前注册任何派对？

Market icon
政治·特朗普

Elon是否会在2027年之前注册任何派对？

Dec 31

Dec 31

是

0% chance
Polymarket
NEW

是

0% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk formally registers a political party in the United States by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The registration must be made with a relevant state or federal election authority and reported as such by a consensus of credible media outlets.Trader consensus on Polymarket slightly favors "No" at 52.1% for Elon Musk registering any political party before 2027, reflecting skepticism over follow-through after his July 2025 announcement of the America Party amid a public split with President Trump on spending policy. No formal FEC filings or state election board registrations have materialized despite initial hype, with multiple fake committee submissions rejected as unrelated to Musk; reports by August 2025 indicated he pulled back to focus on Tesla and SpaceX amid ballot access hurdles like signature thresholds varying by state. The close odds persist due to Musk's history of provocative statements and potential for renewed pushes if fiscal disagreements escalate, while prolonged inaction or explicit denials could solidify "No," and verifiable party filings would rapidly shift toward "Yes." With nine months since the last updates and no recent catalysts, structural barriers to third-party formation maintain the competitive balance.

Trader consensus on Polymarket slightly favors "No" at 52.1% for Elon Musk registering any political party before 2027, reflecting skepticism over follow-through after his July 2025 announcement of the America Party amid a public split with President Trump on spending policy. No formal FEC filings or state election board registrations have materialized despite initial hype, with multiple fake committee submissions rejected as unrelated to Musk; reports by August 2025 indicated he pulled back to focus on Tesla and SpaceX amid ballot access hurdles like signature thresholds varying by state. The close odds persist due to Musk's history of provocative statements and potential for renewed pushes if fiscal disagreements escalate, while prolonged inaction or explicit denials could solidify "No," and verifiable party filings would rapidly shift toward "Yes." With nine months since the last updates and no recent catalysts, structural barriers to third-party formation maintain the competitive balance.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk formally registers a political party in the United States by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The registration must be made with a relevant state or federal election authority and reported as such by a consensus of credible media outlets.Trader consensus on Polymarket slightly favors "No" at 52.1% for Elon Musk registering any political party before 2027, reflecting skepticism over follow-through after his July 2025 announcement of the America Party amid a public split with President Trump on spending policy. No formal FEC filings or state election board registrations have materialized despite initial hype, with multiple fake committee submissions rejected as unrelated to Musk; reports by August 2025 indicated he pulled back to focus on Tesla and SpaceX amid ballot access hurdles like signature thresholds varying by state. The close odds persist due to Musk's history of provocative statements and potential for renewed pushes if fiscal disagreements escalate, while prolonged inaction or explicit denials could solidify "No," and verifiable party filings would rapidly shift toward "Yes." With nine months since the last updates and no recent catalysts, structural barriers to third-party formation maintain the competitive balance.

Trader consensus on Polymarket slightly favors "No" at 52.1% for Elon Musk registering any political party before 2027, reflecting skepticism over follow-through after his July 2025 announcement of the America Party amid a public split with President Trump on spending policy. No formal FEC filings or state election board registrations have materialized despite initial hype, with multiple fake committee submissions rejected as unrelated to Musk; reports by August 2025 indicated he pulled back to focus on Tesla and SpaceX amid ballot access hurdles like signature thresholds varying by state. The close odds persist due to Musk's history of provocative statements and potential for renewed pushes if fiscal disagreements escalate, while prolonged inaction or explicit denials could solidify "No," and verifiable party filings would rapidly shift toward "Yes." With nine months since the last updates and no recent catalysts, structural barriers to third-party formation maintain the competitive balance.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"Elon是否会在2027年之前注册任何派对？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"埃隆会在2027年前注册任何党派吗？"，概率为 48%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 48¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 48%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"Elon是否会在2027年之前注册任何派对？"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场，于Nov 5, 2025上线。作为一个新市场，这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签，以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"Elon是否会在2027年之前注册任何派对？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"Elon是否会在2027年之前注册任何派对？"的当前领先者是"埃隆会在2027年前注册任何党派吗？"，概率为 48%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 48%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"Elon是否会在2027年之前注册任何派对？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。