Trader consensus prices an 80% implied probability against a new country joining the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, reflecting stalled diplomatic momentum since Kazakhstan's formal entry in November 2025 and Somaliland's December 2025 mutual declaration with Israel in the accords' spirit—neither fully resolving prior markets but setting a high bar for additional signatories. Saudi Arabia, the leading candidate, faces domestic backlash, with February 2026 analyses citing toxic public opinion and insistence on Palestinian statehood progress as preconditions amid post-regional war reconfiguration. No official negotiations or announcements have advanced in the past 30 days despite U.S. pressure under President Trump, underscoring significant barriers within the tight three-month window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-06-30
最新
最新
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices an 80% implied probability against a new country joining the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, reflecting stalled diplomatic momentum since Kazakhstan's formal entry in November 2025 and Somaliland's December 2025 mutual declaration with Israel in the accords' spirit—neither fully resolving prior markets but setting a high bar for additional signatories. Saudi Arabia, the leading candidate, faces domestic backlash, with February 2026 analyses citing toxic public opinion and insistence on Palestinian statehood progress as preconditions amid post-regional war reconfiguration. No official negotiations or announcements have advanced in the past 30 days despite U.S. pressure under President Trump, underscoring significant barriers within the tight three-month window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 1, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
交易量
$138结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Apr 1, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices an 80% implied probability against a new country joining the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, reflecting stalled diplomatic momentum since Kazakhstan's formal entry in November 2025 and Somaliland's December 2025 mutual declaration with Israel in the accords' spirit—neither fully resolving prior markets but setting a high bar for additional signatories. Saudi Arabia, the leading candidate, faces domestic backlash, with February 2026 analyses citing toxic public opinion and insistence on Palestinian statehood progress as preconditions amid post-regional war reconfiguration. No official negotiations or announcements have advanced in the past 30 days despite U.S. pressure under President Trump, underscoring significant barriers within the tight three-month window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$138结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Apr 1, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 80% implied probability against a new country joining the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, reflecting stalled diplomatic momentum since Kazakhstan's formal entry in November 2025 and Somaliland's December 2025 mutual declaration with Israel in the accords' spirit—neither fully resolving prior markets but setting a high bar for additional signatories. Saudi Arabia, the leading candidate, faces domestic backlash, with February 2026 analyses citing toxic public opinion and insistence on Palestinian statehood progress as preconditions amid post-regional war reconfiguration. No official negotiations or announcements have advanced in the past 30 days despite U.S. pressure under President Trump, underscoring significant barriers within the tight three-month window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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