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选举·特朗普

NY-12民主党初选获胜者

Market icon
选举·特朗普

NY-12民主党初选获胜者

Micah Lasher 42%

Alex Bores 29%

杰克·施洛斯伯格 18%

埃里克·博彻 6.3%

Polymarket

$103,915 交易量

Micah Lasher 42%

Alex Bores 29%

杰克·施洛斯伯格 18%

埃里克·博彻 6.3%

Polymarket

$103,915 交易量

Micah Lasher

$4,468 交易量

42%

Alex Bores

$2,750 交易量

29%

杰克·施洛斯伯格

$5,183 交易量

18%

埃里克·博彻

$1,823 交易量

6%

乔治·康威

$1,409 交易量

4%

莉娜·汗

$1,636 交易量

1%

莉兹·克鲁格

$36,794 交易量

1%

朱莉·梅宁

$22,807 交易量

1%

卡梅伦·卡斯基

$2,298 交易量

1%

盖尔·布鲁尔

$1,244 交易量

<1%

安德鲁·库默

$1,559 交易量

<1%

Brad Hoylman-Sigal

$4,664 交易量

<1%

Keith Powers

$2,349 交易量

<1%

卡罗琳·马洛尼

$1,755 交易量

<1%

布拉德·兰德

$1,216 交易量

<1%

切尔西·克林顿

$6,916 交易量

<1%

利亚姆·埃尔金德

$1,454 交易量

<1%

斯科特·斯金格

$1,964 交易量

<1%

辛西娅·尼克松

$1,626 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in the NY-12 Democratic primary market positions Assemblyman Micah Lasher as the frontrunner at 42% implied probability, driven by former Mayor Michael Bloomberg's mid-March announcement of multi-million-dollar super PAC funding and recent ad buys exceeding $600,000 from Stand For New York PAC boosting his visibility in the crowded field to replace retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler. Assemblyman Alex Bores follows at 29%, reflecting his edge in a late-February Public First poll amid a reported recent surge, while Jack Schlossberg holds 18% on Kennedy family name recognition and a lead in a rival early-March survey. With polls showing 30%+ undecided voters and the June 23 primary distant, upcoming debates and endorsements could shift the closely contested race among these top contenders.

Trader consensus in the NY-12 Democratic primary market positions Assemblyman Micah Lasher as the frontrunner at 42% implied probability, driven by former Mayor Michael Bloomberg's mid-March announcement of multi-million-dollar super PAC funding and recent ad buys exceeding $600,000 from Stand For New York PAC boosting his visibility in the crowded field to replace retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler. Assemblyman Alex Bores follows at 29%, reflecting his edge in a late-February Public First poll amid a reported recent surge, while Jack Schlossberg holds 18% on Kennedy family name recognition and a lead in a rival early-March survey. With polls showing 30%+ undecided voters and the June 23 primary distant, upcoming debates and endorsements could shift the closely contested race among these top contenders.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in the NY-12 Democratic primary market positions Assemblyman Micah Lasher as the frontrunner at 42% implied probability, driven by former Mayor Michael Bloomberg's mid-March announcement of multi-million-dollar super PAC funding and recent ad buys exceeding $600,000 from Stand For New York PAC boosting his visibility in the crowded field to replace retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler. Assemblyman Alex Bores follows at 29%, reflecting his edge in a late-February Public First poll amid a reported recent surge, while Jack Schlossberg holds 18% on Kennedy family name recognition and a lead in a rival early-March survey. With polls showing 30%+ undecided voters and the June 23 primary distant, upcoming debates and endorsements could shift the closely contested race among these top contenders.

Trader consensus in the NY-12 Democratic primary market positions Assemblyman Micah Lasher as the frontrunner at 42% implied probability, driven by former Mayor Michael Bloomberg's mid-March announcement of multi-million-dollar super PAC funding and recent ad buys exceeding $600,000 from Stand For New York PAC boosting his visibility in the crowded field to replace retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler. Assemblyman Alex Bores follows at 29%, reflecting his edge in a late-February Public First poll amid a reported recent surge, while Jack Schlossberg holds 18% on Kennedy family name recognition and a lead in a rival early-March survey. With polls showing 30%+ undecided voters and the June 23 primary distant, upcoming debates and endorsements could shift the closely contested race among these top contenders.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"NY-12民主党初选获胜者"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 19 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"Micah Lasher"，概率为 42%，其次是"Alex Bores"，概率为 29%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 42¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 42%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"NY-12民主党初选获胜者"已产生 $103.9K 的总交易量（自Nov 21, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"NY-12民主党初选获胜者"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 19 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"NY-12民主党初选获胜者"的当前领先者是"Micah Lasher"，概率为 42%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 42%。紧随其后的结果是"Alex Bores"，概率为 29%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"NY-12民主党初选获胜者"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。